What is the biggest driver of the Blue Jays' success this season?

It's no secret that the Toronto Blue Jays have been much better than originally expected. They hold the best record in the American League, they are tied for the league lead in comeback wins, they've already crushed their preseason win total, and everyone seems to be showing positive regression all at once.

What is the biggest driver of the Blue Jays' success this season?

A question on many Blue Jays fans' minds is whether the success of this team is rooted in positive regression from the core group, such as the drivers like Vladdy, Bo, and George and Kirk, for example. Or, does it come down to the unexpected contributors such as Heineman, Straw, Clement, and more? In short, it seems like too close a call to make, as the answer switches game by game.

That being said, 60.3% of fans from Chris Black's X poll believe that it comes down to the regression from the big dogs, whereas the remaining 39.7% believe that it's the unexpected contributors.

In terms of the core group, every single one of them is outperforming their numbers from last year. The one that's leading the charge, though, is Springer, who has reversed the aging curve. Currently, Springer (going into Friday night) is batting .297 with 28 home runs. If he finishes batting .300 or better to close out 2025, it would mark the first time in his career where he is batting over .300... and he's doing this at 35 years old.

Springer has made heavy contributions to this year's Blue Jays team, leading the pack in positive regression from the core group, but Bo, Vladdy, and Kirk have helped a whole lot, too. Bichette is in legitimate talks when it comes to the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award, as he's fully returned to his old form, plus more. Although Bichette just got shelved with a leg issue, he's put up insane numbers this year as he's slashing .311/.357/.483 and still has a good shot of leading the league in hits (181).

When you look at a wide scope, Vladdy's numbers do not scream "positive regression," but when you narrow it down to post-All-Star break, he's been an animal. Since the break, Guerrero Jr. has a .348 batting average, which is third in the league behind Bichette and Springer during that time. Over that time, he's also racked up his OPS to 1.022, which is fourth in the majors. The last of the core group that deserves some love, is Alejandro Kirk, who's batting .289, compared to his .253 from 2024.

On the flip side of the debate, without the unexpected contributors stepping up, this team wouldn’t be anywhere close to where they are now, let alone sitting atop the American League. Here is a list of the unexpected contributors that have regressed positively: Ernie Clement, Tyler Heineman, Myles Straw, Ty France, Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, and Joey Loperfido.

Guys like the ones listed above, have provided stability in spots where the Jays desperately needed it, filling roles that don’t often get talked about as much as they should. Myles Straw, who was never expected to even make this team, has far exceeded expectations, while guys like Schneider (who was terrible last year) and Barger have brought much-needed pop deeper down the lineup.

Even Loperfido, a midseason spark, has chipped in with timely hits and defensive versatility. These are the kinds of players that separate a team that’s competitive from one that is leading the league. The unsung contributions that round out the roster are keeping the Jays moving.

When it feels like the big boppers are not showing up, the depth pieces and underrated contributors are always there to pick up the slack, which makes this club's offensive game very strong. The unexpected contributors have raised the floor, but positive regression has raised the ceiling.