What history says about the Blue Jays' chances in October

To the joy of countless Canadians from coast to coast to coast, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the Post Season for the first time since 2023. It's an outcome that even the most optimistic fan probably wouldn't have predicted at the start of the season - or even for the first two months of it, or even a few weeks ago for that matter.

What happens from here is really anyone's guess - and there will be plenty of guessing. Going in to this ALDS, for example, many will try to stack the Jays and Yankees up against one another. Who has the leakier bullpen? How does New York's power stack up against Toronto's high contact and low strikeout approach? Have the Yankees learned to defend since July? Can the Blue Jays handle Aaron Judge?

But since you can get the analytical comparison and gambling odds elsewhere, let's explore what the Blue Jays' past can tell us about what's to come.

What History Says About the Blue Jays' Chances in October

The Blue Jays Post Season history is well-documented. They won their first East division title in 1985, won two more before finally winning it all in 1992, repeating the following year, and then endured a 23-year drought before returning to the dance in 2015.

Through it all, the Blue Jays have amassed a 31-36 record in the postseason - including a 31-34 mark in October (since the Tampa series in 2020 happened in late September). Since Joe Carter's walk-off in '93, they're 10-14 - including an ugly 1-8 record in their last nine October playoff games.

Of course, if you only include appearances in the ALDS, the Jays' chances are pretty good. They've only played in two of them in franchise history - their triumphant victories over the Rangers in 2015 and 2016.

But 65 games is an awfully small sample - so how have the Blue Jays fared in October if you include the regular season? 50-39 - including an 11-4 record from 2015 onward. Combining the regular season and playoff numbers, that's an 81-73 all-time mark.

The Yankees have been around slightly longer, so it's no surprise to see they're 373-290 in October - including a 254-185 record in the post-season. But against the Blue Jays, they're 4-6. Their most recent October showdown wound up being a pitcher's duel between Brett Anderson and Jordan Montgomery with Miguel Montero behind the plate for the Jays in 2017.

All this is to say - numbers are numbers, anything can happen, so enjoy the ride.