The Blue Jays winning the AL East is the biggest surprise in baseball in 2025

Few expected the Toronto Blue Jays to win the AL East and secure the best record in the American League. Preseason projections from ESPN ranked them 20th, predicted an 83-79 record, and gave just a 39.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. The expectation was that the team might even consider trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the deadline.

Toronto's season began amid failed attempts to acquire top talent, key injuries, struggles from marquee players, and unresolved contract situations. The team pursued Roki Sasaki and was prepared to spend over $700 million on Juan Soto, only to be outbid by the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, respectively.

Linked to other stars like Teoscar Hernández, Pete Alonso, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes, all ultimately signed elsewhere, leaving Toronto reliant on untested prospects and aging veterans.

The Blue Jays winning the AL East is the biggest surprise in baseball in 2025

Amid these challenges, the Blue Jays pivoted to Anthony Santander, signing him after his career-best 2024 season. Unfortunately, his debut season was disappointing due to both performance and injury: After slashing .179/.273/.304 with six home runs and 18 RBIs over 209 plate appearances, he suffered a left shoulder injury on May 2 that sidelined him until the last week of the season. His return didn't spark improvement, as he went just 1-10 at the plate.

Once the season began, questions surrounded the futures of Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. Guerrero Jr. resolved his situation with a 14-year $500 million contract on April 9, while Bichette’s status remains unclear.

Early speculation may have affected Guerrero Jr.'s performance, evidenced by a slow power start and overall dip in home runs (23) and RBIs (84), all his lowest since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Still, his consistency remained a strength, as he had his second-highest walk total (81) and fewest strikeouts (94) since that same season.

Offensively, the previously untested prospects, notably Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Joey Loperfido, all posted wRC+ above 100, contributing crucial run production and consistency that offset the setbacks from established hitters. Ernie Clement and Alejandro Kirk, who signed a five-year, $58 million extension, along with Daulton Varsho, achieved career-best numbers, further enhancing the lineup's depth and reliability.

One unexpected offensive surprise was George Springer's spectacular season. His .309/.399/.560 line, 166 wRC+, and career-best consistency helped energize the lineup, especially in the high-pressure stretch run. Springer's second-half surge, highlighted by a 1.121 OPS and 16 home runs, was pivotal as the team contended for the division, providing both stability and clutch offense.

Pitching was a challenge. Bowden Francis, expected to build on his 2024 success, struggled (6.05 ERA in 14 starts) and missed the second half of the season with a shoulder injury. Eric Lauer was needed to leave his long relief role and step into the rotation. He performed well with a 3.77 ERA over 15 starts, while Max Scherzer's one-year $15.5 million offseason deal turned into his worst season in his 18-year career (5.19 ERA in 17 starts).

José Berríos started well (3.75 ERA in 115 1/3 innings), but his late-season decline (5.15 ERA in 50 2/3 innings) resulted in a move to the bullpen—a shift he disagreed. The emergence of top prospect Trey Yesavage further shifted the pitching staff dynamics, potentially influencing offseason rotation decisions, such as Berríos potential trade.  

It’s been a long season, but the Blue Jays have far exceeded preseason expectations. This team is poised for the postseason and ready to chase a return to the World Series, their first since defeating the Phillies in 1993.