The offseason moves into the new year and four of the big fish still haven't landed a major league deal yet. Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman remain on the market and there could be a very specific reason for that.
According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, MLB teams are not yet ready to meet these players asking price.
Weighing the pros and cons for the Blue Jays to meet these player's asking prices
Passan recently took to Threads to answer some fan questions, including one about Bichette's current situation and said, "Same as what's going on with Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger: What they believe they're worth has not been matched by teams. At this point, it's reasonable to think at least one will slip between the cracks and go for a shorter-term, opt-out-heavy deal we've seen work for Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, and, for pitchers, Blake Snell. If that sort of deal would work for anyone, it might be Bichette, who could have a big year, show he's healthy, and hit the market again at 28 years old."
The Alonso contract Passan is speaking about was the two-year, $54 million deal that included an opt-out, which was exercised by Alonso this offseason. The 31-year-old Alonso then signed a five-year $155 million deal with the Orioles. The short-term contract is one that should really entice the Blue Jays when it comes to trying to get a deal done with Bichette.
The pro for Bo is that Bichette will be 28-years-old next season and a two-year deal with an opt-out still gets him back on the market before he is 30-years-old, while paying him an average annual value of $27 million. The pro for the Blue Jays is that they get a guy they already know back in the fold and then they can exclusively negotiate a longer term deal while he's still their employee.
Should Bo hit the market again, the Blue Jays have a couple of infield prospects in JoJo Parker and Arjun Nimmala waiting in the wings. They will have a some extra minor league seasons under their belts and Toronto can make a better assessment of their readiness for the MLB level.
The con for Bo signing this deal is the uncertainty after those two years. He's likely looking at the mega contract the Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14-years, $500 million) and wondering, "Why can't I get something similar?" So if Bo does take a shorter term deal, there's a chance he's leaving a lot of money on the table. For the Blue Jays, the con is, they may be left searching for his replacement again after next season.
As for the other free agents, the Blue Jays have a need for each one of them and it feels like it's getting to a point where they should just pony up and meet one of their demands.
The latest reports indicate that Tucker is still looking for a $400 million contract. At this point, if that's what it takes to get it done, so be it. Adding Tucker into a lineup that has Guerrero, with a potentially fully healthy season from Anthony Santander would be a nightmare for opposing clubs. The Blue Jays are also potentially losing Daulton Varsho and George Springer after the 2026 season as both are set to hit free agency.
$400 million for Tucker now is probably the same amount the Blue Jays may need to spend down the road to replace Springer, Varsho and another free agent if they can't add Tucker. While it's a lot of money, and Tucker has had a couple of injuries over the last two years, it seems like a sound investment that just fits so many of the Blue Jays needs.
With Bellinger, the latest reports indicate he is looking for a six-year $182 million contract, which is more than $30 million total than what the Blue Jays signed Springer to in January of 2021. Springer was going into this age-31 season when he inked his deal with the Blue Jays and so we'll call that extra money "inflationary costs." Springer has been worth 14.4 bWAR over his current deal with 119 home runs, an .804 OPS and a wRC+ of 125.
The pro for the Blue Jays in getting a deal done with Bellinger is similar to Tucker in many ways, the only difference being the cost and the age gap with Tucker being two-years younger. The Blue Jays have to ask themselves is that age gap going to be worth an extra $300 million? If Bellinger can replicate Springer's deal, the answer is probably yes.
Lastly, there is Bregman, who is going into his age-32 season. He left $80 million on the table to opt-out of his deal with the Boston Red Sox and so any contract he signs will have to supersede that number. Bregman could be looking for a deal anywhere between five to six years and $155 to $175 million. For the Blue Jays, the pro in signing Bregman means they get a Gold Glove caliber third baseman who has been worth a career 43.1 bWAR with an OPS of .846 and lets the Blue Jays utilize Addison Barger more as an outfielder.
But just like Bichette and Tucker there are some injury concerns, as well as locking up a player that is slightly older for slightly longer. The Blue Jays have long coveted a strong glove at third with the offensive upside to match, it's why they wanted to lock down Matt Chapman before he left for San Francisco. It's the move that probably works the best within Toronto's current configuration but might also be the one that doesn't age as well as the others.
Decision time is coming quickly and at the end of the day anyone of these players should help the Blue Jays chances of winning.
