Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reality now in crosshairs as Fernando Tatis Jr. HR drought ends

San Diego Padres superstar outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. has been the talk of baseball in 2026 for all the wrong reasons. The three-time All-Star finally went deep on May 30th to snap a drought of 240 plate appearances without a home run. 

Tatis has a 42-home-run season on his baseball card and has eclipsed 20 homers five times throughout his impressive career. It is truly astonishing that it took him over a third of a season just to launch his first ball over the fence. 

However, he’s not the only Dominican slugger not hitting up to their usual power standard right now. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays has just three home runs to his name at the beginning of June—now the pressure is on him to perform. 

What will it take for Guerrero to rediscover his home run swing?

Guerrero came into 2026 fresh off one of the most memorable postseason runs in MLB history, during which he slugged a ridiculous eight home runs in 18 games. He then carried that momentum into the World Baseball Classic this spring, hitting two home runs in five tournament games while representing the Dominican Republic alongside Tatis. 

Expectations were appropriately high for Guerrero this season. Yet he has responded to those expectations with arguably the least impressive stretch of his entire career, devolving into a singles hitter despite possessing elite raw power. 

Guerrero would finish the year with fewer than 10 home runs if he were to continue to hit them at his current pace moving forward. That’s downright unacceptable for a first baseman playing on a $500-million contract. It’s also unfathomable considering he almost went deep that many times in half a month’s worth of games last October. 

This isn’t the first time Guerrero hasn’t hit for as much power as he probably should—he only hit 23 home runs during the 2025 regular season—but it is the first time in years that his underlying metrics didn’t suggest a massive breakout was around the corner. 

Guerrero’s bat speed is still elite, yet his barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity are all down compared to last year. He normally hits the ball extremely hard but struggles to elevate it consistently. Now, he just isn’t hitting the ball as hard on the ground or in the air.

Another concerning trend is that he is chasing far more pitches out of the strike zone. His 31.3% chase rate ranks in just the 39th percentile among qualified hitters, which is a significant increase compared to the elite 21.5% mark he recorded last year. His microscopic 10.2% strikeout rate is more a reflection of his elite bat-to-ball skills than a refined approach. 

Guerrero’s confidence is integral to his success. He lays off bad pitches when he’s feeling good about himself, often followed by a shake of his rear end or dramatic stare-down. That version of him is the one who strikes fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers and is capable of crushing any pitch 450-feet into the seats at the Rogers Centre. 

Is that version of Guerrero going to show up in 2026? The pressure is mounting for him to re-emerge, especially now that Tatis has gotten the monkey off his back. 

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