This stat shows why Blue Jays fans should be extremely worried

Game 3's 18-inning contest was an emotional rollercoaster, regardless of your team affiliation. After both teams scored in the seventh to tie it 5-5, they went ten scoreless innings before Freddie Freeman's walk-off home run. The game featured 19 combined pitchers, setting a postseason record.

Will Klein, the Dodgers' last reliever, threw a career-high four innings in his second career postseason outing after being added to the roster due to Alex Vesia’s absence due to a family emergency. Securing Game 3 in a tied World Series significantly boosts championship odds.  

This stat shows Blue Jays fans should be extremely worried

Historically, the winner of Game 3 in a best-of-seven postseason series tied 1-1 has claimed the series victory 69 percent of the time (70-31). With this advantage, the Dodgers now have an implied probability of 83.33 percent of winning it all and are -500 favorites. Since 2020, a tied 1-1 World Series has happened four times.

In 2020, the Dodgers beat the Rays in Game 3 of a tied World Series and won the title in six. In 2021, the Braves did the same against the Astros. Both times, the Game 3 victor went on to win the championship in six games.

In 2022, the Phillies won Game 3 of a tied series, but the Astros won the title in six. In 2023, after a 1-1 tie, the Rangers won three straight to secure the championship in five games.

These recent series underscore a daunting pattern for the Blue Jays: the Game 3 victor holds a decisive edge. Now, facing three-time MVP Shohei Ohtani on the mound in Game 4, the Blue Jays' challenge is even steeper. Ohtani last dominated on the mound in the NLCS, clinching the series with a historic outing.

Ohtani became the first player to strike out 10 and hit three home runs in a postseason game, rebounding from a 3-29 slump to deliver a historic performance.  We witnessed this same performance flip in Game 3 of the World Series.

Ohtani was in a 2-for-8 skid through the series' first two games, bringing his batting average to .224 in the postseason. Game 3, though, he delivered another historic performance. His first four plate appearances all went for extra bases (two solo home runs), which tied Frank Isbell (Game 5 in 1906) for the most extra base hits in a World Series game.

Ohtani’s subsequent five plate appearances ended in walks (four intentional), setting a postseason record for reaching base nine times, surpassing the previous record by three. With the Blue Jays trailing the series and needing to avoid going down 3-1, Ohtani will be pitched around again. Even as Mookie Betts (2-for-15) struggles, the likely plan is to avoid giving Ohtani any pitches to hit, regardless of who follows in the order.

The Blue Jays don’t have much experience facing Ohtani on the mound. Against the righty, Ty France has 17 at-bats (.176 batting average), George Springer, who left Game 3 with right side discomfort, has 15 at-bats (.467 batting average), and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa has 12 at-bats (.250 batting average).

Springer’s MRI results are pending, and his season may be over, complicating the Blue Jays' comeback hopes. Despite unfamiliarity with Ohtani, the Jays handled Tyler Glasnow, Game 3's starter, with similar inexperience, knocking him out after 4.2 innings with four runs (two earned).

Although Toronto's odds appear overwhelming, it's worth remembering the team's season-long resilience. The Blue Jays have defied unfavorable projections before—picked to finish near the division's bottom by CBS Sports experts—so overcoming these daunting odds is not unfamiliar territory.