These Central division teams pose the biggest threat to the Blue Jays wild card chances

The Toronto Blue Jays recent performance have given their 2025 a real boost. Entering Sunday, they sit 35-29, second in the American League East and are leading the AL Wild Card picture as well. A great spot to be in at this time of the year, and it was only about a week ago when they were on the outside looking in. Things can change quickly with how tight the American League is this season and it appears that if the Blue Jays are going to stay in the wild card mix, their biggest threats this season will come from the teams in the AL Central.

The Tigers are leading the way with a 42-24 record in the division. While the Twins, Guardians, and are all withing striking distance. About a week ago, those three teams also owned all three wild card spots.

Central division team pose the biggest threat to Blue Jays Wild Card chances

Blue Jays Versus Minnesota Twins Roster Comparisons

The Twins owned a 4-2 record against the Blue Jays last season and were 3-3 in 2023, before sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card series. Looking at the Blue Jays roster this season it has all the right elements to take down the Twins.

Minnesota is being led by a couple of veterans in the outfield with Byron Buxton's OPS+ at 120, and Harrison Bader right behind him with a 115 OPS+. Matt Walner has also come on and provided a spark with a .380 OBP and four home runs in 24 games. But outside of that group, the Twins haven't generated a ton of offence with star shortstop Carlos Correa slugging just .377 and the rest of the infield combining for just 15 home runs.

Similarly to the Blue Jays, the Twins have relied heavily on the pitching staff to get them to this point of the season. The top four of Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez all had an ERA+ of 108 or better, capped at Lopez's 145. But Lopez recently hit the injured list and they have been patching together the back end of the rotation after former Blue Jays prospect Simeon Woods Richardson faltered out of the gate with a 5.02 ERA in his first eight games and being demoted to Triple-A.

Blue Jays Versus Cleveland Guardians Roster Comparisons

The Guardians are already 2-1 against Toronto - stealing a couple of wins away from the Blue Jays in Toronto in early May. They haven't had a losing season against the Jays since 2021.

In 2025, they seem to be defying odds for most of the season. Their lineup is essentially built around two players in Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan. Both of whom are hitting over .300 and slugging .810 or better. They also have a couple of big sluggers with DH Kyle Manzardo with the second most home runs on the team with 11, and three other players tied with 7 big-fly's including Bo Naylor, Carlos Santana and Daniel Schneemann. But with a run differential of -21 their expected win-loss record is sitting at 29-34. They enter Sunday half-a-game back of a wild card berth with a 33-30 record.

They also lack a top-tier starting rotation. Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are having good seasons, and Luis Ortiz has had a good stretch recently, giving up three runs or less in five straight starts. But they don't have anyone that has been dominant. They do have a guys in their bullpen who have tremendous swing and miss potential. Closer Emmanuel Clase has 30 strikeouts in 27 IP, and Cade Smith has 41 K's in 27 IP. At times this bullpen has been absolutely lights out, while struggling in other parts of the season.

Blue Jays Versus Kansas City Royals Roster Competitions

The Royals and Blue Jays won't meet until August and then they'll square off in September, in the third last series of the regular season, so who knows what could be on the line at that point. The Royals were 5-2 versus Toronto last season, the first time they had beat them in a season series since 2017. This year, the Royals pitching has been on point while they need to boost their hitting to stay in the hunt.

They’ve called up Jac Caglianone to add some punch to the lineup. He's aggressive at the plate and through two levels of minor league ball this season he smacked 15 home runs in 50 games. He's could bring some much needed power to a Royals offense that has just one guy, Vinnie Pasquantino, who has reached double digits in home runs. The Royals also boast arguably the best infielder in the game in shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. who leads the league with 22 doubles and 21 stolen bases.

The Royals' strong pitching in 2025 can be attributed to Kris Bubic whos 3.5 bWAR leads the league for pitchers as does his 1.49 ERA. He's also allowed just 3 home runs in 75 IP, a 0.4 HR/9 rate which also leads the league. Michael Wacha is having another tremendous season with a 3.01 ERA in 74.2 IP and Seth Lugo is putting up decent numbers as a middle of the rotation arm. While Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen have struggled to this point, they both have great track records which suggests they could be bouncing back sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, closer Carlos Estévez, and other bullpen hurlers Eaniel Lynch IV, Lucas Erceg, Steven Cruz, and Taylor Clarke all have ERA's at 2.00 or better. Which is helping keep them in games, and close out some close contests.

None of these teams are perfect, but they all have a lot of similarities to the Blue Jays, which proves these AL Central teams are going to pose a threat to Toronto's wild card chances.