Ross Atkins’ strong choices outshine occasional misses in free agent pitching market

Ross Atkins became the Toronto Blue Jays General manager a decade ago next week. December 3, 2015 was his first day on the job and in the ten years since, he's had his share of ups and downs with the moves he's made to the Blue Jays roster.

But when it comes to signing free agent pitchers to major league deals, there hasn't been a ton that Atkins can say he regrets. For the most part when Atkins signs a free agent pitcher to a big money contract or a long-term deal, those deals have worked out in favour of the Blue Jays.

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has had more hits than misses with free agent pitchers

The Hits: Hyun-Jin Ryu (four-years, $80 million), Robbie Ray (one-year, $8 million) Kevin Gausman (five-year, $110 million), Yusei Kikuchi (three-years, $36 million) Chris Bassitt (three-year, $63 million), Max Scherzer (one-year $15 million).

The Misses: Matt Shoemaker (one-year, $3.5 million), Clay Bucholz (one-year, $3 million), Tanner Roark (two-year, $24 million), *Shun Yamaguchi (two-year, $6.5 million).
*Signed as a potential swingman, not strictly a starter

In ten years there are nine Major League free agent deals for starting pitchers that stand out . There have been plenty more minor league signings, and a boat load of trades, but with the huge news of Dylan Cease landing the biggest free agent contract ever handed out by the Blue Jays, we'll stick to that parameter specifically. This also doesn't include extensions, such as José Berrios' seven-year deal. We're also not counting contract options, such as the Shane Bieber exercise from earlier this year.

Ryu was his first real big signing, a deal that marked the Blue Jays were thinking beyond their rebuilding years and hoping that Ryu would still be a top of the rotation productive arm, once the Blue Jays were ready to be competitive again.

In four seasons, between the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of his deal, and undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of it, Ryu was still able to throw 315 innings as a Blue Jay in 60 starts. In his first two seasons he was worth a combined 4.9 bWAR with 215 strikeouts and an ERA+ of 114. He returned in 2023 and in his 11 starts down the stretch he pitched to a 3.46 ERA in 52 innings, helping the Blue Jays secure a Wild Card spot.

Ray signed arguably the best one-year deal in Blue Jays history. He won the Cy Young award with a 6.9 bWAR season, leading the league in ERA (2.84) innings pitched (193.1), strikeouts (248), ERA+ (157) and WHIP (1.045). Gausman came in the following year as a "Ray replacement" and while he hasn't won a Cy Young Award, he has been worth every penny. He has the fourth highest fWAR among qualified pitchers since 2022 (17.9), and the third most strikeouts (793) in that time.

Kikuchi's tenure with the Blue Jays didn't start so hot. He had a hard time finding the strike zone and gave up a lot of hard contact. He pitched to a 5.19 ERA in 2022, but bounced back the follwoing year and struck out 181 hittiners in 167.2 innings pitched. He had also had a strong first half of 2024, leading to the Blue Jays being able to acquire some high upside prospects from the Astros in a trade deadline deal.

Bassitt's three years with the team were probably exactly what the Blue Jays were hoping for on a deal like that. 4.6 bWAR, 95 starts, 541.1 innings pitched, 520 strikeouts and a 3.89 ERA. He was signed to be a middle of the rotation arm and he gave them middle of the rotation numbers, while also helping them reach the World Series. Scherzer also helped them reach the World Series. While he had an awful end to the regular season, he came through big time in the postseason with 14.1 innings pitched in three starts, allowing six earned runs and striking out 11 hitters.

For the guys that didn't live up to their deals, the only one that really came back to bite them was Roark. For $24 million Atkins was probably hoping for a little more production than they got as Roark was worth -0.6 bWAR, giving up 41 earned runs in 54.2 innings pitched. But it was only a two year deal and the Blue Jays cut him loose after three starts in 2021.

Shoemaker and Bucholz were one year deals during the years in which the Blue Jays were actively rebuilding. They were just brought on to try and eat up some innings and provide some veteran leadership to a younger clubhouse, but neither managed to do that for very long. Shoemaker wasn't awful when he was on the field, but the problem was, injuries limited him to five games in 2019. He came back in 2020 and pitched to a 4.71 ERA in 28.2 innings. Meantime, Bucholz got lit up during his 12 starts as a Blue Jay, pitching to an ERA+ of 69 in 59 innings pitched.

The Yamaguchi signing is a tricky one to put here as the lefthander was coming over from Japan as a starter, but right away the Blue Jays didn't rule out him being in a swing man role. It didn't really matter what role he was in though, as he lasted just 25.2 innings with the Blue Jays during the 2020 season, recording an ERA of 8.06.

With Cease now in the fold, Blue Jays fans are anticipating that one day he'll be in the former group, as another one of Atkins' free agent signings that held up over time.