Projecting 2026 Blue Jays rotation after Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis injuries

During a Tuesday evening Zoom call with media, Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider delivered some roster updates, headlined by injury news on the pitching side. Shane Bieber will open the season on the injured list, while Bowden Francis is done for the year, reshaping Toronto’s rotation outlook.

Projecting 2026 Blue Jays rotation after Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis injuries

On the pitching front, Francis, who pitched just 64 innings in 2025, will undergo UCL reconstruction surgery, ending his 2026 campaign before it ever began.

Additionally, Bieber will be “a little bit delayed” as he deals with right forearm fatigue. The setback has pushed his ramp-up into the regular season, and he is expected to open the year on the injured list, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith.

Francis’ season-ending injury adds another frustrating layer to a career that has struggled to find sustained health. After emerging as a key depth option in 2024, pitching to a 3.30 ERA spanning 103 innings, he was limited to just 64 innings in 2025 before arm issues shut him down.

For a pitcher whose value was built on availability, spot starts, and bulk relief, the loss damages Toronto’s pitching depth while helping to explain why they were in the Framber Valdez market.

Meanwhile, the more concerning news with Bieber represents a different timeline. Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery on April 14th, 2024 and successfully returned to action with success, regaining much of his command and velocity late last season. Down the stretch, Bieber showed encouraging signs while contributing to a deep postseason run.

Kevin Gausman, the 35-year-old veteran who's on the last year of his contract, remains the anchor of the Blue Jays' rotation. Although he pitched 193 innings in 2025, a career high, Blue Jays fans shouldn't feel concerned in the slightest about Gausman and his workload for 2026. He will continue to miss bats with elite splitter feel and sequencing with a potential reduced workload, but as long as he’s healthy, he profiles as the Opening Day starter and the most reliable option.

Right behind him is the newly acquired Dylan Cease, whose presence reshapes the 2026 ceiling for the rotation. If Cease can replicate the form he showed over his previous two seasons in San Diego, Toronto would suddenly boast one of the strongest one-two punches in the league.

The third and fourth gets more interesting, but it most likely begins with Trey Yesavage, who's technically still a rookie despite dominating last year's postseason. Yesavage's upside is real, considering he carved up the World Series champions, going seven innings with 12 strikeouts in Game Five. He is the kind of arm that could change the rotation’s long-term outlook if he continues what he started.

The fifth spot is up for debate, as Jose Berrios and Cody Ponce, who won MVP in the KBO last year, both remain in the mix. Cody Ponce offers usable depth and innings coverage, especially early, but there are still question marks regarding how he will fare against MLB hitters. Spring Training should help to iron those things out.

Berrios, on the other hand, enters 2026 coming off one of his first uneven and injury-affected seasons. That context matters after his late-year struggles and frustration over being left off the postseason roster. Once Shane Bieber returns, the fifth and or sixth option, could be up in the air.

At the end of the day, the injuries to Francis and Bieber complicate the picture but don’t derail it. Toronto still has viable rotation options, especially if Bieber returns somewhat early and the club leans on depth to cover innings. The margin for error may be thinner, but the rotation remains capable of holding its own if health cooperates.