The Blue Jays would welcome this "perfect fit" signing by the Orioles

The American League East has really driving the hot stove so far this offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays addressed their pitching by signing Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and also had Shane Bieber take the option on his contract to play with Toronto in 2026.

Both the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles have also made moves with the former grabbing Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the latter picking up reliever Ryan Helsley off the free agent market while also getting Taylor Ward in a trade with the LA Angels. Even the Tampa Bay Rays have made a move, signing right fielder Jake Freely.

It doesn't feel like any of these teams are done yet and there could be even more star power entering the AL East. However, one of these teams ideal targets is someone the Blue Jays would likely welcome joining a division rival, and that's Framber Valdez.

The Blue Jays would welcome this "perfect fit" signing by the Orioles

Valdez is one of the big name starting pitchers available this offseason, and by some measures, he may be the best of the bunch. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently wrote that Valdez would be the "perfect fit" for the Orioles, "the Orioles need starting pitching as badly as any team in the Majors, putting them in the market for the top arms. Valdez is the oldest of the bunch (he’s entering his age-32 season), but he has the longest track record, has postseason experience, and could sign for fewer years than some of the others."

There is no doubt that Valdez would be a major addition to any team he joins, especially the Orioles, who ranked 26th in team ERA (4.60), and 27th in team WHIP (1.37) and 26th in batting average against (.259). Over his eight year career, Valdez has a 3.66 ERA, a 1.204 WHIP and held hitters to a .238 batting average against.

But in those head-to-head matchups against Toronto, he hasn't exactly been dominant. While you could say it's a relatively small sample size, Valdez has started six games against the Blue Jays since 2019 and for the most part, the Blue Jays have had his number. In those six games, Valdez has accumulated an ERA of 4.17 with 29 strikeouts and 13 walks in 36.2 innings. Decent numbers, but far from elite, especially from a "top of the rotation" type arm.

The Blue Jays have also managed a .298 BABIP against him in those six contests, leaning into the contact heavy approach that carried the Blue Jays offense in 2025 - although Valdez hasn't faced the Blue Jays since 2024. In two starts that season, Valdez allowed just three earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched, but gave up 15 hits, while striking out nine.

This isn't to say that the Blue Jays are going to cruise every time they face Valdez, should he join the Orioles. But at the same time, Valdez hasn't dominated the Blue Jays in the past and if this ends up being Baltimore's big move, it's not a move that should overwhelm Toronto.