Why should Blue Jays fans expect a better result in 2025?

After a disastrous bet on internal improvement in 2024, what makes the Blue Jays front office think this terminally underperforming team can compete in the final year of team control of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette in 2025?

That uncomfortable question probably could have been asked even ahead of the current season on February 15 at MLB’s Grapefruit League media day, when Toronto GM Ross Atkins said, “At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction.”

After a disappointing offseason, where the Jays missed out on giving $700M to Shohei Ohtani, reliever Chad Green had his 2-year, $21M club option exercised, Kevin Kiermaier was resigned, Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt were replaced by Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner, and Cuban righty Yariel Rodríguez signed a 5-year, $32M contract, that bet on internal improvement ignored the possible regression by the pitching staff, and continued underperformance by the offence.

Well, regress the pitching staff did, posting a 4.53 team ERA so far, to rank 27th in baseball. The bullpen ERA of 4.95 is only better than the Colorado Rockies, who play half of their games a mile high.

The once high powered batting lineup has struggled to score runs, ranking 25th in MLB with 423 runs, and has hit only 95 home runs to date, to rank 27th out of 30 teams.

With their only two top-100 prospects currently out of baseball (Orelvis Martinez is serving an 80-game PED suspension and southpaw Ricky Tiedemann will go under the knife on July 30, and miss next season recovering from Tommy John surgery), there is very little help coming from a likely bottom quintile farm system as of the post-Trade Deadline farm system ranking update.

Trading away players on expiring contracts will add some MLB-ready prospects, like 22-year-old, switch-hitting speedster Jonatan Clase, but this front office is unlikely to acquire anyone who will be a clear difference maker in upgrading this lineup for next season. The key return for Danny Jansen, 20-year-old 3B/SS Cutter Coffey, is currently in High-A ball and won’t contribute to the big league roster in 2025. He ranks 7th in the South Atlantic League with 14 home runs, but is at least a few years away.

The key return for Nate Pearson, 22-year-old OF Yohendrick Pinango, is going to be Rule 5-eligible in the coming offseason, so he will need to be added to the Blue Jays' 40-man roster over the winter.

George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green will all be in their age-34 or older season next year, while Bichette and Guerrero will be in their final year of team control, along with injured closer Jordan Romano and set-up men Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.

Free agents who could change the shape of this lineup?

Absent any elite waves of MLB-ready talent from the farm system - who could either improve the team or be used to acquire roster upgrades, how can the Blue Jays run it back again in 2025, and hope for a better result from a core that has zero playoff game wins in a Blue Jays uniform? With close to ~$68M in salary dropping off from the 2024 Opening Day roster, free agency is really the only option.

There’s clearly a deep end of the free agent market, headlined by generational talent Juan Soto and an ace in Corbin Burnes. There are some talented bats in the next tier, including Teocar Hernández, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Matt Chapman.

Pitchers worth pursuing to improve the staff include Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, or perhap a buy low candidate in Blake Snell, in the hopes he can rebound to his 2023 NL Cy Young form? Or former Jay Robbie Ray, who made his 2024 debut on July 24 after a 14-month rehab from Tommy John surgery? Or an innovative contract for a pitcher recovering from Tommy John surgery, like Shane Bieber, or UCL ligament repair with internal brace surgery, like Lucas Giolito?

However, as per Jeff Passan’s comments in the ‘Blair & Barker’ interview above, AL East peers Baltimore, New York, Boston and Tampa Bay aren’t going away next year. “Now you’re telling me you're going to bring back the same team that has terminally underachieved, and you’re going to do so in an environment where there are teams that are desperate right now for a slugging first baseman… the notion that you could get the Seattle Mariners involved in a bidding war for Guerrero right now, when they have the very types of prospects - both hitting an pitching - that you covet as an organisation?”

Could this front office change their mind if someone made a “Godfather offer” - an offer they can’t refuse for Guerrero, the injured Bichette, Green and/or Bassitt, and offered multiple MLB-ready prospects who could accelerate a rebuild in Toronto?

Might that be the best option today, rather than trying to run it back with a lineup that isn’t any closer to World Series success? What we do know is that betting on internal improvement is not the answer.