Last Blue Jays rebuild offers little hope for this year’s sell off

As the trade deadline fast approaches, we’re down to seeing the last few appearances in a Blue Jays uniform from players on expiring contracts, including Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García, Trevor Richards, Danny Jansen, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier.

That list might also possibly expand to players with only one more season of team control left, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chad Green and Chris Bassitt, given the potential for two playoff runs makes them more valuable today to a postseason contender.

The Blue Jays will be sellers ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, that much we know. Whether it will just be those pending free agents on expiring deals, or whether it will include core players with another year of control remains to be seen.

According to senior MLB reporter Mark Feinsand’s sources, “the Blue Jays have told other clubs that they are willing to move players with expiring contracts, but those with control beyond 2024 are not being traded. The consensus among a dozen executives we spoke with is that the Blue Jays will attempt to move most or all of their rental players if they sell, working to add some prospects to a farm system that entered the season ranked at No. 24 by MLB Pipeline.”

Other pundits like Buster Olney of ESPN and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi have suggested that the Blue Jays front office is considering trade offers for players under contract beyond 2024, which would include Guerrero, Bichette, Kevin Gausman, Bassitt, Green and injured closer Jordan Romano.

In a radio interview on June 28, Olney name-dropped Bassitt, a 35-year-old veteran who has thrown 653 innings across 110 starts with a 3.46 ERA over the the last four seasons, as an “absolutely perfect fit” for Baltimore.

Many fans are incredulous that Toronto’s ownership is even entertaining the idea of allowing this current front office to conduct a sell-off again. Talk that the team wants to compete again for a World Series title in 2025 also implies that general manager Ross Atkins and his front office will not be allowed to deal Guerrero, Bichette, Green or Bassitt, given they would form the core of the 2025 team, along with Gausman, José Berríos, Romano and others under team control.

Whether or not they can surround those players with enough talent to keep their competitive window open again for one more run with Bichette and Guerrero will be a hot topic this offseason, as will the question of who will run baseball operations, and whether that person will have full autonomy to build the team on the field without interference from team president Mark Shapiro.

What is unquestioned is the fact that the Blue Jays have won 348 games since the start their most recent competitive window in 2020, for a .541 winning percentage. Over that stretch, the Blue Jays have made three postseason appearances as a Wild Card team; and, they just missed out on a Wild Card by one game in 2021.

While they haven’t won a single playoff game with the current core, they’ve been buyers every year at the deadline, adding Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling and Jonathan Villar in 2020, Brad Hand, Joakim Soria and Berríos in 2021, Mitch White, Zach Pop, Anthony Bass and Whit Merrifield in 2022, and Jordan Hicks, Génesis Cabrera and Paul DeJong last year.

Last time the Blue Jays were sellers at the deadline

Given it’s been five years since Blue Jays fans have seen a sell-off, we can look at the last time they were sellers at the Trade Deadlines in 2018 and 2019 for clues on how things might play out this year.

In the midst of a tough 73-89 season in 2018, they dealt J.A. Happ, Roberto Osuna, Seunghwan Oh, Aaron Loup, John Axford and Steve Pearce prior to the deadline, and traded 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson to Cleveland after placing him on waivers in late August.

That sell-off was followed by a dismal 67-95 season in 2019, when Marcus Stroman, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson, David Phelps, Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini were all dealt over the last four days of July.

The takeaways from those two sell-offs aren’t positive. They raise questions about the competence of Toronto’s pro scouting group, and the decision makers in the room who consummated those trades. The only difference making names acquired for all of that talent above were Ken Giles, who saved 38 games in parts of three seasons as a Blue Jay, with a 2.83 ERA and 111 strikeouts over 76.1 innings; and, Simeon Woods Richardson, who was later packaged along with Austin Martin, the No.5 overall draft pick in 2020, in the Berríos trade.

That’s it. Apart from the trade tree that resulted in Berríos, not a single player acquired at the 2018 or 2019 trade deadlines remains with the Blue Jays organisation. Aaron Sanchez returned on a minor league deal to provide Triple-A depth, but has gone 2-6 with a 9.52 ERA in only 46.1 innings over 11 starts at Buffalo.

From a WAR perspective, the players the Jays traded away at the 2018-19 deadlines went on to produce a bWAR of in their post Blue Jays careers of 22.4. Phelps returned to the Blue Jays as a free agent in 2021-2022 and put up a bWAR of 1.5, but it’s still over 20 wins above replacement for players that were traded away. That increases to over 31 wins if we include Donaldson’s post-Blue Jays numbers.

Of the players who’ve made a difference in Toronto, Giles and Berríos have a combined bWAR of 6.6 as Blue Jays. Others like Brandon Drury (-1.7), Anthony Kay (0.0), Derek Fisher (-0.5) and Julian Merryweather (-0.2) were actually worse than their potential replacement players and cost the Blue Jays wins.

So what now?

Certainly Kikuchi, García, Richards and Jansen should have value in trades. Despite going unclaimed on waivers, Kevin Kiermaier has value as a defensive player for a playoff-bound team like the Dodgers. Justin Turner’s playoff experience and ability to drive in runs in the clutch should help him find a new home.

Last year, the Guardians were able to acquire top 100 prospect and first baseman Kyle Manzardo from the Rays for starter Aaron Civale. He’s their No. 2 prospect and was ranked No. 35 overall on MLB Pipeline’s preseason top 100. Manzardo has a .981 OPS and 13 home runs in 181 at bats with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, the Columbus Clippers, and played in 30 games for the Guardians after his MLB debut in May.

Civale had a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts at the time of the trade, with only 58 strikeouts in 77 innings. Kikuchi’s 4.54 ERA over 21 starts is worse, but he’s struck out 125 batters in 111 innings. Bassitt has a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts and 114 innings. To move Bassitt, the Blue Jays would have to receive at least one top 100 prospect.

Recall that Hicks cost the Blue Jays two starters who are in Triple-A for St. Louis this year in Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. García is one of the best available relievers this year, with a 3-0 record and 5 saves thanks to a 2.48 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 29 innings. He needs to return two Double-A prospects nearing promotions, like Hicks did last year.

We’ll soon know the return Ross Atkins and his front office are able to generate from the Blue Jays sell-off this year, but the recent track record from 2018-2019 does not suggest much hope in the way of potential difference making players who will make the Blue Jays more competitive in 2025 and beyond.