Which Blue Jays will benefit most from each of MLB's new rules in 2023?

You’ve probably heard that the ol’ ballgame is set to change in a significant way this upcoming season, as long talked about rule changes finally take effect in MLB. The thing we’re all eager to know, however, is how baseball’s new rules will impact the Blue Jays, and, more importantly, which players will be most positively affected.

Last week, we at Jays Journal took an in-depth look at which Blue Jays should most benefit from the new shift ban. If you haven’t already, I would recommend checking it out here.

Below we’ll look at the other major rule changes for 2023, then break down which Jays can be expected to cash in most.

*all stats from Baseball Savant

New Rule: Shift Ban

First, a refresher. No longer will teams be able to stack one side of the infield with defenders or use four outfielder alignments. Instead, teams must have two infielders on either side of second base on every pitch.

Who will this impact?

Look for players who pull the ball a lot and are shifted heavily, particularly those who pull the ball on the ground – the idea being that they’re constantly hitting the ball into the shift and making outs.

• Daulton Varsho

Did you know that Daulton Varsho pulled the ball more than any qualified hitter in baseball in 2022? More than that, he was outside the top 100 qualified batters in Hard Hit Percentage, meaning much of the time he was pulling the ball, it was soft contact right into the shift. How many of those worm killers and thousand hoppers will become seeing-eye singles in 2023?

• George Springer

George Springer might not immediately come to mind as a guy impacted by the shift, but he actually pulled the ball almost as much as Varsho in 2022 (11th among qualified batters) and was shifted even more (59.5%-48.2%). If more hits start rolling through a shiftless infield in 2023, well, fun fact: Springer's BABIP was .285 in 2022; the last time it was above .300 – when it was .305 in 2019 – he hit .292 with a .974 OPS in 122 games.

Learn more about what this means and check out the full list of Jays players most impacted by the shift ban here.

New Rule: Pitch Clock

Pitchers will now be limited to 15 seconds between pitches with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on. Additionally, batters must be ready to hit with no less than 8 seconds remaining on the pitch clock. A violation by pitchers will result in an automatic ball, and by batters, an automatic strike.

Who will this impact?

It’s difficult to be sure how the pitch clock will impact the game, beyond a prediction of potential chaos as players get used to it. However, it seems probable that pitchers who like to work fast will have an advantage, both because they will be less impacted by the pitch clock, and because batters will no longer be able to disrupt their timing.

• José Berríos
  Pitch tempo, bases empty - 15.4 seconds (34th)
  Pitch tempo, men on base - 20.9 seconds (36th)

By far the fastest worker on the Jays, and in fact the only member of the staff with above average tempo last year, pace in attack is a large part of José Berríos’ game. Add to this the fact that he possesses the best pickoff move on the team, and at very least, he seems equipped to work within the new pitch clock and stolen base rules. Many are predicting a big bounce back from Berríos in 2023; perhaps the new rules will be a significant part of it.

• Yusei Kikuchi
  Pitch tempo, Bases empty – 19.9s (285th)
  Pitch tempo, men on base – 24.4s (275th)

Yusei Kikuchi is one of the slowest workers in the league. Anecdotally, it often seemed last year like he was overthinking things on the mound, getting in his own head and losing confidence. Conversely, the few times he did seem able to get into a rhythm, he was actually pretty good. Will being forced by the pitch clock to work faster get him out of his own head and into a groove more often?

• Bonus: Vladdy (… again)

With pitchers having to rush because of the pitch clock, and under more stress with runners on from new steals-related rules, it seems likely that they’ll make more mistakes. Did you know that Vladdy received one of the lowest percentages of “meatballs” (middle-middle pitches) in the league last year – only 6.5%, 20th lowest among qualified batters. For good reason, pitchers are careful with him. If more mistakes are coming, well, we’ve all seen what Vladdy can do with a meatball …