Which Blue Jays will benefit most from each of MLB's new rules in 2023?

You’ve probably heard that the ol’ ballgame is set to change in a significant way this upcoming season, as long talked about rule changes finally take effect in MLB. The thing we’re all eager to know, however, is how baseball’s new rules will impact the Blue Jays, and, more importantly, which players will be most positively affected.

Last week, we at Jays Journal took an in-depth look at which Blue Jays should most benefit from the new shift ban. If you haven’t already, I would recommend checking it out here.

Below we’ll look at the other major rule changes for 2023, then break down which Jays can be expected to cash in most.

*all stats from Baseball Savant

New Rule: Shift Ban

First, a refresher. No longer will teams be able to stack one side of the infield with defenders or use four outfielder alignments. Instead, teams must have two infielders on either side of second base on every pitch.

Who will this impact?

Look for players who pull the ball a lot and are shifted heavily, particularly those who pull the ball on the ground – the idea being that they’re constantly hitting the ball into the shift and making outs.

• Daulton Varsho

Did you know that Daulton Varsho pulled the ball more than any qualified hitter in baseball in 2022? More than that, he was outside the top 100 qualified batters in Hard Hit Percentage, meaning much of the time he was pulling the ball, it was soft contact right into the shift. How many of those worm killers and thousand hoppers will become seeing-eye singles in 2023?

• George Springer

George Springer might not immediately come to mind as a guy impacted by the shift, but he actually pulled the ball almost as much as Varsho in 2022 (11th among qualified batters) and was shifted even more (59.5%-48.2%). If more hits start rolling through a shiftless infield in 2023, well, fun fact: Springer's BABIP was .285 in 2022; the last time it was above .300 – when it was .305 in 2019 – he hit .292 with a .974 OPS in 122 games.

Learn more about what this means and check out the full list of Jays players most impacted by the shift ban here.

New Rules: Stolen Bases

First base, second base, and third base are all increasing in size from 15 to 18 inches square, meaning a 4.5-inch reduction between bases. Additionally, pitchers will be limited to two pickoff attempts per plate appearance – if a third pickoff is attempted and unsuccessful, the runner will automatically advance.

Who will this impact?

Don’t immediately look at those who put up high stolen base numbers – they’re already capable of stealing a bag (sorry Whit). For the greatest impact, look instead to the guys for whom 4.5 inches, and less of a pickoff threat, could mean all the difference between success and failure – think players with good-but-not-great sprint speed who can steal the odd base but get caught a lot.

(Note: the high end of MLB sprint speed – players like Trea Turner and Julio Rodríguez – is around 30 feet per second, while the low end – think Alejandro Kirk and Rowdy Tellez – is about 24ft/s)

• Bo Bichette
  Stolen bases/Caught stealing - 13/8
  Sprint speed - 27.5 ft/s

Bo Bichette's athleticism hides the fact that his sprint speed has actually been measured as eminently average, the same as Ryan Mountcastle and Nick Castellanos. Blue Jays fans, for their part, may remember him being constantly thrown out by a half step last year. Could the new rules mean a return to his 2021 numbers, when he stole 25 bags and was caught only once? Or could he go even higher and steal 30-plus?

• Santiago Espinal
  Stolen bases/Caught stealing - 6/6
  Sprint speed - 27.0 ft/s

Santiago Espinal seems like a guy who should be able to steal a base – an athletic middle infielder with good reflexes – but Jays fans will remember him as another guy consistently thrown out by half a step in 2022. A couple of extra inches on the basepaths could push Espinal’s stolen base total into double digits, or perhaps make him a valuable late-game pinch runner.

• Bonus: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

No, not for stolen bases, though remember when Charlie Montoyo claimed Vladdy could steal 30? MLB has stated that the reason for larger bases is not just to encourage steals, but to reduce collisions on the basepaths by giving fielders and baserunners more room. Anyone who has seen Vladdy stretch for Bo’s often errant throws will know that more room might just save his life.