There's no denying the four-game series versus the Rangers was a disaster. The Blue Jays just shouldn't be getting swept at such a crucial point of the season, especially at home.
Regardless, all hope is not lost yet, with the Blue Jays sitting just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card position (albeit with only 15 games remaining). In addition, the other three teams they are battling for a playoff spot all still have to play more games against other, i.e. the Astros, Rangers and Mariners.
With all this to consider, potential tiebreaker scenarios are becoming more of a possibility. Let's consider where the Blue Jays stand versus the other three contenders, as per the following tiebreakers:
1) Head-to-head- Simply put, the record of the two teams versus each other.
2) Intradivision record- Whichever team has the better record within their own division.
3) Interdivision record- Whichever team has the better combined record versus the other two divisions in the AL.
4) Last half of Intraleague games- Better combined record versus the rest of the AL over the final 81 games of the regular season.
5) Last half of Intraleague games plus one- Same as four, plus the final game of the first half of the regular season. If still tied, keep adding the game before until a winner is determined.
NB - All standings/records are up to and including September 14, with games remaining for each tie-breaker scenario in brackets.
Mariners
Tie-breaker | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blue Jays | 3-3 (0) | 12-25 (15) | 38-26 (0) | 21-21 (15) | W+2 |
Mariners | 3-3 (0) | 26-13 (13) | 33-31 (0) | 34-17 (13) | L+2 |
These two team are forever linked, by virtue of entering the Majors at the same time in 1977. There is also a rivalry of sorts -- helped by Blue Jays fans invading T-Mobile Park every season -- which is blossoming after last year's playoff matchup.
This is nothing more than a hunch, in predicting the two teams will battle it out for the third and final AL wild card spot. If this does turn out to be the case, the Blue Jays will need nothing short of a miracle in the second tie-breaker scenario, having to win all 15 remaining AL East games and hoping the Mariners somehow go 1-12 versus the AL West, in order to win on the third tie-breaker.
Rangers
Tie-breaker | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blue Jays | 1-6 (0) | 12-25 (15) | 38-26 (0) | 21-21 (15) | W+1 |
Rangers | 6-1 (0) | 23-19 (10) | 37-21 (6) | 24-18 (16) | L+1 |
On the subject of rivalries, the Blue Jays enjoyed a good one with the Rangers during the last decade. With them meeting in the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016, José Bautista's bat flip undoubtedly fueled the contention between the two teams.
Sadly for Blue Jays fans, it hasn't felt like much of a rivalry this season given the Rangers' superior head-to-head record. The Blue Jays have put themselves in an essentially impossible position as a result of this week's home sweep, meaning they need to avoid the Rangers at all costs when it comes to tie-breakers.
Astros
Tie-breaker | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blue Jays | 4-3 (0) | 12-25 (15) | 38-26 (0) | 21-21 (15) | W+1 |
Astros | 3-4 (0) | 30-19 (3) | 28-27 (9) | 32-24 (12) | L+1 |
Yes, the reigning World Series champions are leading the AL West at the time of writing, but they just seem less intimidating and formidable compared to years past. Along these lines, the Astros are the team the Blue Jays would most want to finish level with in the event of any tiebreakers, by virtue of their superior head-to-head record.
In addition, if it somehow came down to a three-way tie, the Blue Jays would again want to finish level with the Astros, along with the Mariners. In this case the Blue Jays would rank second with a 7-6 record versus the other two, the Mariners would be first at 11-5 and the Astros would be third at 5-12. (Even allowing for the remaining three games this season between the Mariners and Astros, these positions wouldn't change.)