The Blue Jays are steadily improving in the run differential race

Even as there are a handful of things to feel good about concerning the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays, there is still plenty that may cause concern. It's been a tale of two halves and the pitching and offense have unquestionably looked better in the latter half instead of the former. What if the answer about the sustainability in the Blue Jays' performance can be explained by a rather basic baseball statistic?

In an age of baseball analytics that a lot of fans don't understand, the run differential stat is unique because it is one of the easiest to calculate. Simply put, it represents the difference between runs scored and runs allowed. A simple subtraction equation. It helps provide a better fundamental understanding of how a team is performing over the course of a marathon regular season (162 games) than a random daily result. A team with a losing record and positive run differential may be poised to start winning more games once the numbers even out. Conversely, a team with a winning record and negative run differential may be headed for a market correction because of the shaky foundations underpinning the record. It's clear that many front offices use the stat to determine whether a team's performance is sustainable and whether or not to buy at the trade deadline.

In all likelihood, the Blue Jays will run out of runway to apply lipstick to the pig that is their run differential. Having been outscored by 55 runs with a little more than a handful of contests left, the Blue Jays will need to go on some ridiculous heater just to get back on flat ground. Maybe they could now turn their focus to besting the supposedly pitching and defense behemoth Tampa Bay Rays. They are right on par in run differential with the World Series champions from last season.

What a shame because Toronto baseball fans could torture themselves by playing the "What-If" game. What if Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk had just hit at league average levels in the first few months of the year? What if the bullpen was merely average? All of those factors absolutely influenced the run differential. Toss in the inevitable blowouts which every team experiences and you have a maze that can be really hard to crawl out of.

Look at the numbers and you will realize how the latter half team would beat the former half team. For the purposes of this activity, a blowout can be defined as winning or losing by ten runs. In the first 82 games, the Blue Jays suffered three such results, all three of them being lopsided losses. Thanks a lot, Yankees! On a serious note, the first of those blowouts could be blamed just as equally on the putrid offense that was no-hit on April Fools day.

Meanwhile, since that line of demarcation, the Jays have been improving offensively and experienced three such outcomes including a 15-0 bludgeoning of the Minnesota Twins. That output nearly offset the 24 runs they were outscored by in the other two games against Arizona and Tampa Bay. Anything to glean from that? Maybe not, but clearly the team isn't getting blown out as much and doing their dearest to undo some of that self-inflicted damage.

What does all of this mean? Hopefully it proves that no baseball statistic is inviolable by itself. Look no further than the Cincinnati Reds who are sporting a positive differential (+17) yet on the fringes of being eliminated from postseason contention. What good did it do them? Or the Seattle Mariners almost at +50 and still fighting for a playoff spot. At the same time, clearly there are predictive tendencies and that's why front offices utilize the stat. Mostly, it will all be factored into the picture as the Blue Jays look to wade through the final gasps of the regular season. Not only get to .500 but also trimming down the ugliness of the run differential stat. These are the kind of things that help fans believe this team is capable of bigger things.