Blue Jays rotation has been dominant lately, just like we thought it would be

Coming into the season, the Toronto Blue Jays, and just about everyone else, figured that the starting rotation would be the team's strength, much like 2023. Things didn't work out that way, and now here we are — although a recent run of dominance has thrust the rotation back into focus for all the right reasons.

Last season, the rotation ranked sixth in MLB with 12.6 fWAR and had the third-lowest ERA at 3.85. As a group, the Blue Jays' starters were dominant and pulled the sputtering offense along into the postseason.

Things didn't go smoothly to begin 2024 for various reasons. The rotation's first-half 6.1 fWAR ranked 20th in baseball, while the middling 4.13 ERA ranked 15th. With a below-average offense and atrocious bullpen, that wasn't nearly good enough to keep the Blue Jays in contention.

Kevin Gausman had a funky shoulder and looked nothing like the Cy Young finalist from the previous year. José Berríos was up and down. Yusei Kikuchi gradually got worse up until he was traded. Alek Manoah only made five starts before hitting the shelf for the season. Yariel Rodríguez didn't show up until the end of June. Bowden Francis, in his tiny sample size, was the opposite of the burgeoning ace we see now. Chris Bassitt had the best ERA of the bunch at 3.52.

Blue Jays rotation has been dominant lately, just like we thought it would be

However, after that lackluster first half, the rotation has found its legs of late and is showing out like we thought it would — especially since the end of August.

Following Sunday's games, Blue Jays starters rank first in the majors with a 1.98 ERA since Aug. 28. They also rank first with a 0.96 WHIP and a .197 batting average against. Their 10 quality starts are the second-most, despite having a 7-9 team record in that span.

While that's a small sample size (two and a half weeks), if you look back a little further, there are more positive takeaways from the rotation as a group. In the second half, Blue Jays starters rank sixth with a 3.66 ERA, second with a 1.10 WHIP, third with a .217 batting average against and fourth with 299 2/3 innings pitched.

Even with the offense picking things up since the All-Star break, the bullpen continues to be an anchor, so the effects of the rotation's recent dominance aren't showing up in the wins and losses. But with Gausman and Berríos looking better and the recent emergence of Francis and Rodríguez, the rotation looks poised to once again be a strength of the Blue Jays heading into a pivotal 2025 season.