The best and worst September performers from the current Blue Jays roster

For the Toronto Blue Jays, when it comes to playing critical games down the stretch in their hot pursuit of the playoffs, it will be important to have the players all performing at their best to give the team the best chance at winning. Some may rise to the occasion and produce unexpected results, whereas others may unfortunately flounder in the intense pressure.

To see who these key players are that could make a difference for the ballclub, we will take a closer look at the best and worst performers in the final month of the season from the current Blue Jays roster (based on their career statistics to date). For the purposes of this article, whenever the term ‘September’ is being utilized, it is referring to the month of September in addition to any regular season games that take place in October as well.

Best September performers

Danny Jansen

We already know that Danny Jansen has been one of the rare clutch hitters for the Jays this season. Time and time again, we have seen Jansen come through with game-tying and game-winning hits throughout this season, but many may not know the best is yet to come. That is because September has always been Jansen’s best run production month in his career.

In 93 games over his six-year career, Jansen has hit an impressive .262 with an .859 OPS, with 47 runs scored, 18 doubles, 16 home runs, 50 RBI and 135 total bases in September, handily beating any of his standard marks set in his other months.

Coincidentally, September has been also one of Alejandro Kirk’s weaker performing months for his career. So to maximize the Jays’ chance of winning, they may want to lean towards giving Jansen the majority of the starts from here on out.

Bo Bichette

Everyone knows already what Bo Bichette can do for the ballclub. He has basically done it all for the Jays whenever he is healthy and playing. But little do people know that as impressive and consistent as he has been, he can actually raise his game to entirely another level during the final month of the season when the games matter most.

In 94 career games in September, Bichette has hit .336 with a whopping .931 OPS, along with 66 runs scored, 18 home runs and 65 RBI, with no other month surpassing these totals. So basically he hits over 35 points higher than his career average and 100 points higher than his career OPS during the final month of the season. Also, if projected over a 162-game span, it would mean he would be producing 114 runs, 31 home runs and 112 RBI, which are MVP-type numbers.

Over the years, when the Jays really needed someone to step up for them in the stretch run, that person without question has been Bichette. Unfortunately, he is currently on the 10-day IL with a right quad strain, after being back in the lineup for only eight days, as he was sidelined the several weeks prior with a right knee injury that occurred at the end of July.

If the Jays were to have any chance in chasing down one of the Wild Card spots by the end of the year, Bichette will need to be back as soon as possible to help make it happen. But they will need to take extra caution at the same time to be sure he is back to full health when returning to avoid any further risk of injury that could end both Bichette and the Jays’ season at the same time.

Worst September performers

Jordan Hicks

With Cabrera being the smart trade deadline acquisition that could turn out to be a huge difference maker in the final month of the season for the Jays, the same cannot be guaranteed for the other huge deadline acquisition in Jordan Hicks. Ever since Hicks was acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, he has been throwing intense heat while mowing down opposing hitters in helping the Jays to many wins.

However, looking ahead to September, it has generally been Hicks’ worst month statistically so far in his five-year career in the majors. For his career, he sports an 0-1 record with a gaudy 5.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, giving up 11 earned runs, 11 walks and 20 strikeouts in 16 game appearances. The good news is that he hasn’t pitched too much in the final months in previous years, so the stats may be skewed somewhat due to a lack of games. But at the same time, if the stats are indeed a good indication of how he pitches down the stretch, it could be bad news for the Jays. That is because for someone that constantly throws heaters reaching triple digits, it could signify that fatigue could be a factor leading to his less than stellar numbers in the final month of the season.

If that is indeed the case, the Jays should utilized Hicks very carefully in these final few weeks to maintain his effectiveness. If he needs more rest between outings to be at his best, so be it and make sure it happens. But if he can somehow prove this year that what was seen in the past is just an anomaly and that he can be his dominant self no matter what month of the season it is, we are definitely here for it if so.

Matt Chapman

In the case of Matt Chapman, luck has certainly not been on his side recently as just a few weeks ago, he injured his middle finger in a weight room accident that caused him to miss a few games in the process. However, that injury had lingered, so on August 28th, he was officially placed on the 10-day IL for his sprained right middle finger.

It may sound a bit harsh on Chapman, but the injury may be a blessing in disguise for him. He had been having a miserable month of August in which he has hit only .197 with only four runs scored, two doubles, one home run, six RBI with 29 strikeouts in 21 games played. If that wasn’t bad enough, what people don’t know is the fact that September has generally been Chapman’s worst performing month in his career.

Over his seven-year career, he has hit a dismal .198 with a .681 OPS, with just 25 doubles, 19 home runs and 65 RBI to go along with 167 strikeouts in 137 games played in the final month of the season. What that means is he hits almost 45 points below his normal average, and over 100 points below his usual OPS, while striking out at a high rate at the same time.

As a result, having his IL stint occur right now could actually help Chapman, as it gives him some time to reset and regroup while he recovers. That way, when he is healthy enough to come back later in the month, he will be fully recharged and well-rested, unlike any of his previous Septembers. So hopefully at that time, we will be seeing a revitalized Chapman that can ultimately produce a memorable final few weeks for everyone to remember.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is definitely a surprising name to find on this list, as given his pedigree, one would expect him to be leading the Jays down the stretch, not being one of the worst performers on the team. However, based on his statistical numbers over his career, he has unfortunately come up short at times in the final month of the season for the team.

September has typically been Guerrero’s worst month in his career, just edging out the month of May by a few categories. In 110 games, he has posted just a .260 batting average with a .763 OPS, along with 18 home runs, 58 RBI, 35 walks and 78 strikeouts. That’s almost 20 points below his usual batting average and 80 points below his usual OPS. Even just last year, he hit just a measly .235 with a .680 OPS in the last 32 games of the season.

For someone that was expected to help carry the team to important victories down the stretch, it is about time that Guerrero brings his ‘A’ game and show his 2021 form once again in leading the ballclub. If he can produce an impressive final month of 2023, it will certainly make people forget all about his struggles this year. That way, the Jays’ faithful would have full optimism and hope in both Guerrero and the Blue Jays as they begin their desperate march into the playoffs.

Nevertheless, hopefully we will see some unexpected heroes step their game up in September at the same time to help the Blue Jays overcome their current obstacles and reach the postseason for the second consecutive season.