Stability and continuity win out: Ross Atkins will be back as Blue Jays GM

In what likely comes as a surprise to no one who’s been reading the tea leaves, but a disappointment to any baseball fan hoping for the Blue Jays to bring a World Series back to Toronto, team president Mark Shapiro announced that Ross Atkins will be back for a 10th season as general manger next year.

In his year end press availability Wednesday morning, Shapiro said, "there won't be a change with Ross; if I felt there was a better alternative to run our baseball operation, I’d make that change.” And after a second consecutive disappointing season-end, Shapiro repeated what he said last year: “We need to be better. Ross needs to be better.”

We’ve heard repeatedly from Shapiro that he values continuity and stability, and that he sees that as a competitive advantage. So it should come as no surprise to anyone that his chosen GM will stay on in this pivotal offseason, as Toronto looks to retool to field a championship calibre team in 2025.

After a 74-88 (.457) season that saw the Blue Jays finish in last place in the American League East, 20 games back of the New York Yankees, Toronto clearly needs to get better. But those needed adjustments will again be driven by Ross Atkins, because stability and continuity have won out over pivoting to a new direction under a new voice. John Schneider will also return as manager.

Shapiro obviously loves the consistency of the Blue Jays finishing in 3rd place or worse in seven of the past eight seasons, after the 2016 team they’d inherited ran it back to the American League Championship Series.

Their record since the start of 2017 is a combined 594-600 (.497), which is consistent with Cleveland’s 1110-1157 (.490) cumulative record when Shapiro was their GM from 2002~2010 and team president from 2011~2015.

Toronto’s farm system has consistently been ranked bottom third in baseball for over three years now, and has continuously failed to produce MLB-ready waves of talent from a minor league system that finished 28th in the organizational standings this year. There are no top 100 prospects.

Meanwhile, the division rival Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox all have consensus top ten farm systems, with multiple top 100 prospects, as do American League peers Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota and Seattle. That gives them a competitive advantage going forward, and Toronto will have to beat them all to advance to the 2025 postseason.

Does the ‘on field’ product even matter anymore?

Despite the 5th place finish, the ownership group at Rogers is surely pleased with the attendance numbers. Toronto had the 9th highest attendance in MLB this year, averaging over 33,000 fans per game. The fan experience is much improved, with all of those renovated seats facing home plate and the popular $20 ‘Outfield District’ standing room only tickets boosting attendance numbers.

Canada’s lone MLB team is surely profitable for Rogers given they own the nationwide rights to Sportsnet broadcasts and Blue Jays related content. The fact they’ve recently agreed to buy Bell Canada Enterprises’ (BCE) 37.5% stake in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (MLSE) for C$4.7B, to become the controlling 75% stakeholder, suggests they like owning professional sports franchises.

But is winning games now besides the point? For example, Toronto fans consumed an obscene 727,819 Loonie dogs on Tuesday home games this season, averaging 1.82 hot dogs per fan (DPF) in attendance at those games, or 5% more DPF than in 2023. Was that boiled mystery meat milestone more important to fans in attendance than the 6-7 win-loss record in those games, where the home team was outscored 59-63?

For those fans left wondering why Rogers doesn’t want a better “on the field” product for their $218M payroll, the focus now shifts to a busy offseason ahead. The Blue Jays need two big bats, a completely revamped bullpen, a catcher to replace Danny Jansen’s at bats, and better starting pitching depth.

After firing most of their player development staff as well as MLB hitting coach Guillermo Martinez, plus dropping field coordinator Gil Kim and assistant pitching coaches Jeff Ware and David Howell from the MLB coaching staff, they also need to hire new coaches. Don Mattingly will go back to just being the bench coach and give up his role as offensive coordinator.

Extending Guerrero Jr. long term would ensure stability & continuity

Apparently this type of continuity and stability above will continue for another year. Absent an extension, Shapiro’s contract is set to expire after next season. The same goes for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, as well as veteran Chris Bassitt, relievers Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Génesis Cabrera and Chad Green, and manager Schneider. Atkins is under contract through the 2026 season, but clearly Toronto’s front office is all in on 2025.

Shapiro says the “payroll won’t be dramatically different next year, not growing or decreasing in a big way”, but surely a large chunk of the ~$60M in payroll dropping off this year will go towards free agent signings to extend the current competitive window?

A $300M+ extension for Guerrero should also be part of that stability and continuity Shapiro values so much as well, as it would give fans a homegrown star to get invested in for the next 10+ years, like Aaron Judge in New York and Bobby Witt Jr. in Kansas City.

But when asked Wednesday if he sees Vladdy as a generational talent, Shapiro punted and said, “I don't know, generational player… a great talent, a great player… he certainly has the opportunity to be a generational player.” Does that mean they’re going to take their best player to an arbitration hearing again like when they lost in February and Vlad was awarded a $19.9M contract? Or not extend him?

What are we doing here?

Ross Atkins will be involved in all of these important decisions above. Shapiro sees that as a “competitive advantage” for the Blue Jays, and expects improvement in 2025. Or is that just valuing the continuity and stability of .500 baseball and early postseason exits?

After all, since Shapiro and Atkins were first hired in Toronto after the 2015 season, the really successful teams that have had continuity and stability in their front office have won multiple division titles and World Series Championships. Think of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who’ve won eight NL West titles and the 2020 World Series all under Andrew Friedman, or the Atlanta Braves who’ve won six NL East titles and the 2021 World Series all under Alex Anthopoulos?

Closer to home in the American League, Cleveland has five AL Central titles since 2016 and lost in the 2016 World Series under Chris Antonetti, who succeeded Shapiro as GM after the 2010 season and was promoted to team president after the 2015 season, and current GM Mike Chernoff. The New York Yankees have three AL East titles all under Brian Cashman since then. Tampa Bay has two AL East titles and lost the 2020 World Series all under Erik Neander since 2016.

In fact, Toronto is the only team in the AL East not to win the division since 2016. The Blue Jays and Orioles are the only AL East teams not to win a playoff game since 2017, but Baltimore has a chance to end that string in their current ALWC series at home versus the Kansas City Royals.

If Shapiro thinks keeping Atkins as his GM gives the Blue Jays a competitive advantage, let’s see it. As ace Kevin Gausman said recently to Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun, “I’m sick of the ‘talent’ talk. We’re so talented, this and that. We’ve got to start winning games. We’ve got to figure it out. We’ve got to do it quickly. I’m only getting older. [Rotation mate Chris] Bassitt is only getting older. If we want it to happen with this group, it has to happen soon. So what are we going to do?”

That’s the right question to be asking. And as the focus turns to the offseason, the glare is brightly on the front office: what are they going to do? The time for talk is over; let’s see them make the adjustments needed to improve this ball club enough to win the AL East and compete for a World Series, because 2025 is likely their last chance. They’re literally going to need to win the offseason to turn this ship around.