MLB insider comes around on the idea of a huge extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

After a couple of people in the industry called ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan a “moron” for suggesting that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wasn’t a $300M+ first baseman, he spoke again Friday on the ‘Blair and Barker’ show on Sportsnet 590 The FAN and changed his opinion.

“The bat and the age are going to make it such that $300M is going to be the floor rather than the ceiling,” argued Passan.

Noting he lives in Kansas City, he asked rhetorically if anyone outside that city could name a player from the 2015 World Series champion Royals? Not easy, right? Passan then pointed to Bobby Witt Jr.’s 11-year, $289M contract signed ahead of this season, and how that gives Royals fans someone to get invested in for the long run. And that’s fair: Witt will likely be an AL MVP finalist this season with a 7.6 bWAR and .993 OPS (OPS+ 169).

Guerrero has already been an MVP finalist, finishing 2nd in 2021 in his age-22 season. He’s also a four-time All-Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glover and All-Star Game MVP. His 4.3 bWAR and .946 OPS (OPS+ 166) likely has him in the AL MVP conversation again this year with Aaron Judge, Witt, Juan Soto, Rafael Devers, José Ramírez and Gunnar Henderson.

Which brings us back to the comparison baseball insiders like Passan have been using lately as a template for a likely Guerrero extension: Devers’ 10-year, $313.5M contract extension that he signed ahead of last season entering his age-26 season. With a shout out to Brandon Wile, MLB supervising editor at The Score for the original idea, here’s the comparison with Vlad turning 26 next March:

Devers prior to his $313.5M extension in 2023, going into his age-26 season:

689 MLB games played, 139 home runs, 455 RBI, .283/.342/.512, .854 OPS, 124 OPS+.

Vlad heading into age-26 season (with 1.5 months to go this season):

775 MLB games played, 153 home runs, 480 RBI, .286/.361/.499, .860 OPS, 136 OPS+.

At the time Devers signed his extension, he’d accumulated an 18.8 bWAR. Guerrero currently sits at 19.7, with 47 games left to play this season.

Some may point out that Devers is primarily a third baseman. But with offensive numbers like that, why would Guerrero sign for anything less than Devers, who - unlike Vlad - has never won a Gold Glove and isn’t known for his defense? His career defensive runs saved above average (DRS) at third base is -58, with a -4 outs above average (OAA) and dWAR of -3.4 over 8 MLB seasons.

Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet also weighed in on the Vlad contract extension debate with a very interesting analysis of the ten year performance of first basemen from age-26 to age-35 if they’ve performed well through their age-25 season.

As Ashbourne writes, “He’s a top-10 hitter in the majors by wRC+ (166) right now, and over the past four seasons combined (144). Players who fit that description are the kind of guys franchises tend to keep in town, even at great expense.”

And looking at the 14 closest comparable players to Guerrero on career wRC+ before their age-26 year over the last 50 seasons, Ashbourne found that almost all of the modern Guerrero comparables maintained significant offensive value in the ten years from age-26 on of their careers: “Every single one had a wRC+ of 109 or better, with an average of 132 and only two falling short of 125.”

He concludes, “In terms of pure value, the fWAR numbers are also solid as this group averaged 3.55 WAR per 600 plate appearances from age 26-35. Even if the Blue Jays ended up handing Guerrero a yearly salary around $30 million that type of production would be palatable.”

Is that enough for the Blue Jays to offer him a record-breaking total value contract for a first baseman in excess of Miguel Cabrera’s, 10-year, $292M deal from 2014? Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper signed a 13-year, $330M free agent contract in 2019 when he was 26, but at the time he was playing in right field before suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in November 2022.

At present, Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers has the highest average annual value (AAV) of any first baseman at $27M from the six-year, $162M free agent contract he signed with Los Angeles ahead of the 2022 season, when he was 32-years-old. After Harper, the next highest total contract value for a first baseman is Kris Bryant’s seven-year, $182M deal with the Colorado Rockies. But Bryant was also playing in the outfield when he signed that deal as a 30-year-old in March 2022.

Again, being this close to free agency, it’s highly unlikely that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would sign a long term contract extension with the Blue Jays worth anything less than $300M. The Blue Jays already manipulated his service time when he was first called up in late April 2019, in order to gain an extra year of team control that would have likely now been worth more to Guerrero in free agency; and, they took him to a salary arbitration hearing in February this year, and lost.

Team president Mark Shapiro knows all of this, so either he bites the bullet and convinces ownership to pay whatever it takes to keep the one homegrown, generational player the Blue Jays can likely extend in Toronto; or, Vlad will likely leave as a free agent along with Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Chad Green and Jordan Romano after next season.

And then who do Blue Jays fans get invested in for the long run like Bobby Witt Jr. in Kansas City? Rafael Devers in Boston? Bryce Harper in Philadelphia? Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles? Or Aaron Judge in New York? Tick, tock…