Is Blue Jays manager John Schneider on the hot seat?

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The past few weeks have not been kind to Toronto Blue Jays fans, less roller coaster ride and more drop tower, or perhaps bungee jumping without a rope.

With the team in apparent freefall – 2-9 in their last 11 games, 8-16 in their last 24 – many have taken to calling for the manager’s head, their cries buoyed by the existence of a ready-made replacement in Don Mattingly already on the bench.

At the risk of descending in full-blown Wilnerism, I’m going to have to advocate for a deep breath. Has the manager made mistakes this season? Sure. But John Schneider’s seat should not be getting hot just yet …

A deep breath

First, the big picture: the Toronto Blue Jays are currently three games out of a playoff spot with 111 games left to play.

I can hear older Blue Jays fans hollering already – you call that a collapse!?

Indeed, long-running Jays fans will be well versed in underachievement and unexpected disaster. As recently as 2017, a team that had made back-to-back ALCS appearances started the year 6-17, burying themselves before they got out of the gate. Or remember 2013, when the team famously went all-in and traded for the reigning Cy Young winner, R. A. Dickey, as well as four-time All Stars José Reyes and Mark Buehrle, only to start 10-21.

I could go on – 2009, 2006, 2003, 1998; each was a team fans were certain would finally get over the hump, only for them to unravel in painstaking fashion. The point is, while it has perhaps felt like a unique calamity in 2023, it really hasn’t been.

Here is another way to look at it. Below are Major League Baseball’s Opening Day Power Rankings, alongside each team’s current record.

1. Houston Astros (28-21)

2. Atlanta Braves (31-19)

3. San Diego Padres (23-27)

4. LA Dodgers (31-20)

5. New York Mets (26-25)

6. New York Yankees (30-22)

7. Toronto Blue Jays (26-25)

8. Philadelphia Phillies (23-27)

9. Seattle Mariners (26-24)

10. St. Louis Cardinals (23-29)

Note that six of the 10 are right there with the Blue Jays, wallowing in mediocrity, or worse.

Imagine being a fan of the Padres, who were told they had the best lineup in the history of the sport, or a fan of the Mets, who were under the impression their uber-billionaire owner was in the process of buying a championship, let alone a fan of the Cardinals or Phillies. Simply, the Blue Jays are not (yet) in the midst of some sort of unprecedented collapse.

Now, does that mean you should be happy with where they’re at? Of course not. That the team has underachieved so far is not really up for debate. But what does this say about the manager?

Remember John Schneider?

Up until about three weeks ago, the view of John Schneider throughout the Blue Jays organization and across much of the fanbase was something like, well, is ‘prodigy’ too strong of a word?

On his meteoric rise, the guy won championships at three different levels of the minor leagues, and last year, led an underachieving team sitting at 46-42 when he took over as manager to a 46-28 record down the stretch. It was expected that Schneider would settle in comfortably behind the bench for the next decade – ‘The John Schneider Dynasty,’ people took to calling it.

Despite the team’s recent struggles, it is likely that the organization still views Schneider the same way today as it did last month.

That said, prodigy or not, there is one irrefutable weakness which Schneider has at this moment – inexperience. It reared its head in game two of the Wild Card Series last year, and has again appeared in moments early this season.

The thing about experience though is that the only way to get it … is to get it.

Right now, Schneider is experiencing his first extended slump as a major league manager. Here’s the good news though: that he would have this experience in his managerial career was a guarantee. Where we truly get to learn about John Schneider the manager is not when something that was guaranteed to happen, happens, but what happens now, how the team gets out of its slump, and where they go when they do.

Here is some more good news. It’s no secret that to this point in the season, the Jays’ schedule has been unusually difficult. No, this does not excuse their poor performance against division rivals thus far, but it does mean that their schedule is set to get much more manageable – easier stretches are coming, and the Jays will have an opportunity to get hot.

Of course, an opportunity to get hot won’t mean much if the players keep playing like they have been …

Will someone step up?

The strongest argument Schneider’s defenders have right now is a simple one – he's not exactly swimming in options.

Look at the roster. Is there so much as one player who has noticeably exceeded expectations so far? Maybe Kevin Kiermaier? Bo Bichette? Heck, there’s barely a handful of players who have even met expectations.

Find yourself disagreeing with Schneider’s lineup decisions?

From straw-that-stirs-the-drink George Springer being cold as ice for most of the season to new guys and expected middle-of-the-order thumpers Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt at times bordering on black hole status, to each of the catchers having extended periods of incompetence both at and behind the plate, to at-one-time-valuable utility players Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio falling off a cliff, there aren’t many magic bullets at Schneider’s disposal.

Hate Schneider’s bullpen management?

Nine relievers have made more than three appearances for the Jays this year; Two of them (Yimi García and Zach Pop) have ERAs over six, Anthony Bass is at 5.06, and Adam Cimber, 4.50, while even the back end of Romano and Swanson have seen their ERAs climb into the mid-threes. It’s not exactly Ward and Henke on the other end of the bullpen phone.

Sick of seeing the starters flame out multiple times per week?

A perilous lack of starting pitching depth is something we discussed at length at Jays Journal heading into the season. With Hyun-jin Ryu and Mitch White still injured, and Rickey Tiedemann taking his lumps at Double-A, the options for change don’t extend very far beyond bullpen-day-or-bust.

The fact is, there are only so many ways a manager can hide underperforming players. Eventually, somebody is simply going to have to start playing better.

And if they don’t, if huge portions of the roster continue to struggle, well then, the discussion isn’t really about the manager, is it? At that point, if we’re talking about hot seats, we may want to start a dialogue about Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro …

Who is to blame for the Blue Jays current struggles? And can they get out of it? Let me know on Twitter – @WriteFieldDeep.

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