How is the MLB Draft Order determined?

The Toronto Blue Jays have just finished one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. Projected to be a contender in the American League, the team kept up to expectations, became a seller at the deadline, and had several unfamiliar names contribute to a whimpering conclusion of the season.

One positive from all the losing is that the Jays have the fifth-highest odds of landing the #1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. The team will have a 7.48 percent of solidifying the top pick in next year’s first-year player draft. If fate smiles on them and the first pick goes to Toronto, it will represent the first time the franchise has ever owned the initial selection. They drafted second in 1978, 1980, and 1982.

Major League Baseball introduced the draft lottery in 2023 to curtail tanking and it determines the top six picks in the draft among the 18 clubs that failed to make the postseason. The remaining selections in round one are determined by reverse winning percentage. 

The lottery includes a rule that prevents teams who are not part of the league’s revenue-sharing system from receiving lottery picks in consecutive drafts. That has ruled the Oakland Athletics, and the team that just had the worst season in the modern era of baseball, the Chicago White Sox. Those teams will own selections 10 and 11 respectively.

Here is the entire list, according to tankathon.com:

1 Colorado - 22.45%

2 Miami - 22.45%

3 LA Angels - 18.03%

4 Washington - 10.20%

5 Toronto - 7.48%

6 Pittsburgh -5.31%

7 Cincinnati - 3.67%

8 Texas 2.45%

9 San Francisco -1.90%

10 CHI White Sox –

11 Oakland –

12 Tampa Bay - 1.50%

13 Boston - 1.22%

14 Minnesota - 1.03%

15 St. Louis - 0.84%

16 CHI Cubs - 0.65%

17 Seattle - 0.49%

18 Arizona - 0.31%

The Blue Jays will be looking to follow the path of the Cleveland Guardians, who parlayed a 76-86 season (and a 2% chance of landing the top pick) into the first overall pick, which they used to take Oregon State infielder Travis Bazzana. The 2025 MLB Draft has some enticing talent at the top, with Ethan Holliday (the brother of Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday), NCAA stars Jace Laviolette, and Cam Cannarella considered the best of the class.