What are the Blue Jays' chances of landing the top pick in the MLB Draft?

Well, that didn't go quite to plan did it? After making the playoffs in three of the past four seasons -- and winning 91 games in the one year they didn't -- the Toronto Blue Jays came crashing back down to earth big time in 2024.

As much as the Blue Jays weren't predicted to be genuine contenders to win it all this year, they were at least still expected to seriously challenge for the postseason. Instead, they had one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory, finishing with a record of 74-88 and with plenty of blame to go around, from top to bottom.

Everything that could go wrong, did. A -72 run differential which was ranked eighth-worst in the Majors, was a testament to how one of the significant ways the Blue Jays competed as a team, was in how all areas of the roster underachieved collectively.

A potential prize awaits for the Blue Jays

As a result, the Blue Jays are now in a position where they could potentially end up with the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Yes, your eyes are not deceiving you - you read that previous sentence correctly.

For the first time since the CBA was amended in 2022, the Blue Jays are in position to be a part of the MLB draft lottery. As much as no Blue Jays fan wants to be without postseason baseball in Toronto, perhaps there can be some solace in winning the 2025 first overall draft pick.

To be clear, the odds aren't hugely in the Blue Jays' favour. However, they are still one of the non-playoff teams in with a chance of securing that precious first overall pick.

Non-playoff teams get entered into a lottery, which determines the top six picks in the draft. After this, the remaining none-playoff teams' positions are determined by their win-loss record, from worst to best. (For clarity, the lottery only applies in the first round of the draft.)

As per MLB.com, It should be noted that are a couple of stipulations, one being teams that receive revenue sharing are not eligible for the lottery for three straight years. The other is that teams not receiving revenue sharing are ineligible for the lottery for two consecutive years, but neither of these stipulations impact the Blue Jays specifically.

So what exactly are the Blue Jays' chances?

As you'd expect, one of the reason's for adding a draft lottery, is to stop teams tanking. However, it is only fair that the worse your record, the better your odds of clinching that first overall draft pick. (Usually, the three teams with the worst records get the same highest odds.)

In respect of the Blue Jays, they are actually in a 'luckier' position than usual for being in their first MLB draft lottery. They finished with the seventh-worst record in the Majors, which in an average year would mean odds of 5.5 percent for the top overall pick.

Due to the stipulations regarding non-revenue sharing clubs however, Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics are both ineligible for the 2025 draft lottery. As a result, the Blue Jays have moved up two spots to fifth place, and will instead have a 7.48 percent chance of securing the first overall pick of the 2025 draft.

Yes, these odds are still not great. At the same time though, they are still better odds than what Lloyd Christmas had with Mary Swanson in Dumb and Dumber, and he still seemed very upbeat about his chances!

Based on previous years, the 2025 draft lottery should take place in early December this year, and broadcast live on the MLB Network. Perhaps the Blue Jays will get an early Christmas present, or at least as much as a present that you call it after having one of the worst records in the Majors this season.