History suggests Bo Bichette’s desire to stay in Toronto could be a leverage tactic

Ahead of Bo Bichette starting his minor league rehab assignment with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons on Tuesday, Sportsnet Blue Jays insider Shi Davidi discussed how the 26-year-old star had done plenty of reflecting while home recovering from his calf injury. Bichette told him that “my ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization.”

Bichette went on to say. “I'm 100 percent committed to doing whatever it takes to accomplish those things. That's where I'm at.” As Jays Journal's Sophie Shipton wrote, “Although it'll be a difficult task to extend the two biggest stars of this franchise given Guerrero intends to remain with the team long-term, the fact that Bichette seems committed could be an interesting storyline to follow in the months ahead.”

Looking at the recent history of longer term player extensions in Toronto might give pause to those thinking Bo might be staying. In fact, the only 5+ year extensions the current front office has reached with players are the five-year, $52M deal signed by Randal Grichuk in April 2019, and the seven-year, $131M contract José Berríos signed after the 2021 season.

That’s it. They’ve never been able to extend a homegrown player like Bichette or Guerrero. Gone are homegrown talents like Marcus Stroman, Danny Jansen, Nate Pearson and Gabriel Moreno, who were all traded away by general manager Ross Atkins.

With close to ~$60M in salary dropping off from Toronto’s Opening Day payroll after this season, and potentially more if they non-tender closer Jordan Romano, they should have room to sign players like Bo and Vlad to lucrative, long term extensions. Of course, they also need to completely reconstruct the bullpen, add some big bats, as well as starting pitching depth and another catcher if they truly intend to compete in 2025.

What does recent history predict in terms of Bichette staying?

A number of Blue Jays stars in recent years have expressed a desire to stay in Toronto prior to being traded or becoming free agents. Starting with Edwin Encarnacion, on through Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman and Teoscar Hernandez, we’ve often heard a similar refrain from players.

So not to pour rain on this parade, but Bichette saying he wants to win a championship with Vlad isn’t the first time a Blue Jays star has said he wants to stay in Toronto. It’s smart business, and negotiation 101: the player (and his agent) creates the impression any team looking to sign Bichette as a free agent will have a tough competition on their hands with Toronto. It increases his leverage and likely his market value as well.

Here’s Encarnacion ahead of the 2016 season, his last in Toronto before signing a three-year, $60M contract with Cleveland that included a 4th year option for $25M with a $5M buyout for the 2020 season.

“Of course, I want to stay on this team,” said Encarnacion. “I love this team, I love this city but it’s not about my opinion. It’s about the way the team is thinking. I hope we get it done so I can stay here for the rest of my career.”

After the 2017 season, former MVP Donaldson said he would have been "tickled pink" if the Blue Jays' front office made a contract extension offer. Donaldson apparently made his feelings known to Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro, telling them he wanted to remain with the organization for a "long time." He was traded to Cleveland for a PTBNL in a waiver claim deal on August 31, 2018.

Here was Stroman in February 2019 before he was traded to the New York Mets at the Trade Deadline that July:

"I've been waiting to sign a long-term deal, I've been offered nothing. There's no one that embodies the city of Toronto more than me and you're not going to find guys who come in and want to embody the city of Toronto because it's just not natural," the New York native added. "I've taken a liking to that myself. That has been organic and natural… I've always wanted to be here."

Then there were the comments from Hernández after he was quickly traded to the Seattle Mariners at the conclusion of the 2022 season:

“You always want to think that way,” Hernández said when we asked him if he felt he’d be a Jay for life. “I’m not the guy who wanted to go bouncing around to 10 different teams. I wanted to stay with one as long as I can do my thing.”

As Rob Longley wrote for the Toronto Sun, “The more success he had in a Blue Jays uniform, the more he believed he’d be in Toronto for the rest of his career.”

So while its encouraging to hear similar comments from Bichette about a desire to stay in Toronto for the long term, lets also remember this is a business. There’s always a chance he could sign an extension with the Blue Jays; but there’s also a chance he’s saying the right things now to increase his negotiating position and leverage ahead of becoming a free agent after next season.

It’s certainly not the first time fans have heard that. Encarnacion wanted to “stay here for the rest of my career.” Donaldson wanted to remain with the organization for a "long time." Stroman “always wanted to be here." And Hernández lamented how “I wanted to stay with as long as I can do my thing.” Of course it takes two to tango and “share risk” in Shapiro-speak.

Jays fans are also perhaps left wondering what happened to Shapiro’s comments to Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt of Sportsnet 590 The FAN in March 2020, when he stated that signing top young talent to pre-arbitration extensions “is a strategy that I have been a very big part of throughout my career, and it’s something that we believe strongly in.”

None of Toronto’s recent top young, homegrown talent — Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Manoah, Pearson or Romano — have been signed to pre-arbitration extensions beyond their arbitration years.

So is it really something this front office believes in? Bichette and Guerrero now both are on the record as saying they’d like to sign long term extensions to stay in Toronto. But with pending free agency for both stars after the 2025 season, its time for Rogers and Shapiro to walk the walk, and show fans exactly what they believe strongly in; either bark with the big dogs, or get off the porch.