Four expectations Blue Jays fans have for 2024

Expectations. In a sport as stretched out and ever-changing as baseball, what are they good for? They can help to gauge a level of success you’re expecting to see from your favourite team, perhaps aid in placing a wager, or get you excited to watch certain players. However, as evidenced by the 2023 Blue Jays, expectations are a great way to be disappointed. 

This fanbase is well within it’s rights to be frustrated about the lack of postseason success over the last couple of seasons. There has simply been too much talent on this team since 2020 to not have a postseason win to show for it. MVP candidates, Cy Youngs, and multiple All-Stars every season have yet to produce a playoff win.

The Blue Jays' reign of mediocrity, a trend that lasted about 20 years and then continued for another four, should not be forgotten by this fanbase. Alex Anthopolous brought success in 2015 and 2016, and Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have now done that beginning in 2020. While Atkins should feel pressure to produce playoff wins, it’s worth commending this effort by him and his team to produce a well-rounded roster capable of maintaining competitiveness. However, time for appreciation has passed, and results are now expected. 

Despite numerous tremendous seasons from important players on the roster, the Blue Jays failed to meet expectations placed on them by just about everybody. Analysts, fans, the front office, and their own players were left disappointed at the end of a season that saw the club just barely squeeze into the playoffs. 2023 was considered by many fans to be the most frustrating and stressful season in a long time. This is due to a lack of effectiveness most of the season in clutch situations, bone-headed mistakes from star players, and disappointing seasons from guys expected to carry this team to playoff success.

Negatives aside, it’s still a fair expectation for the Blue Jays to be a playoff team. It’s simply the same core as the previous two seasons, with hopes of some improvements from what should have been key contributors. The front office was willing to break the bank for Shohei Ohtani, clearly indicating a desire to maintain competitiveness.

With the base expectation of competing for a playoff spot, what other expectations can be tacked onto that point? In other words, what do fans think need to happen for the 2024 Blue Jays to reach the playoffs for the third consecutive season, and actually look like they belong there?

1. Bounce-back seasons from key players

The first and most broad expectation amongst fans is simply that key players have bounce-back seasons. There were a variety of key contributors to the 2021 and 2022 teams that either weren’t all that noticeable, or disappeared entirely in 2023.

The most obvious is Alek Manoah, as the young right-hander went from Cy Young finalist to having a 5.87 ERA over just 87.1 innings. Multiple reasons have been identified or hinted at by different members of the media, but one thing is agreed upon, Manoah can bounce back and will compete for a job in the rotation come spring training. Despite the disappointing year, the rotation remained one of the best in baseball thanks to comebacks from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. Manoah's spot in the rotation became a cause for concern, and the team suffered as a result. A bounce-back to effectiveness for Manoah would be massive towards this teams success in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be seen as the second most disappointing player from last season, and one needing a bounce-back. While being 17% better than the average major league hitter in 2023, Guerrero's bat combined with his subpar defensive metrics totaled only 2 bWAR, good for twelve on the team. With his ceiling, skillset and history, Guerrero should be entering every season as one of the best players in the AL, not a middle of the pack hitter on his own team. His batted ball profiles and expected stats remain elite, it’s just a matter of putting it together and getting results consistently.

George Springer had his first healthy season since his days as a Houston Astro, but managed only a 102 OPS+ over those 154 games. Springer will need to hone his discipline at the plate and go back to making hard contact if he’s to stagnate his regression in 2024. Springer remains a multi-tool threat, even at 34-years of age. There’s reason to believe one of the captains on this roster can bounce back, and hopefully have another healthy season.

Lastly, there were some role players or guys not necessarily in the spotlight who didn’t seize their opportunities when presented. Despite being one of the best defensive players in baseball, Daulton Varsho took a step backward with the bat. It was theorized he was primed for a breakout once moving to a hitter friendly Rogers Centre, but that never materialized. Another role player who toiled in inconsistency was Cavan Biggio. With a 116 OPS+ over his first 159 games, paired with his versatility, Biggio had the makings of an effective big league player. However, since 2021, Biggio’s bat has regressed to around replacement level. When he is going good, he’s pulling the ball in the air and walking at an above average rate. If Biggio could get back to this level of production in 2024, the Blue Jays would have one of the games better utility-men, and possibly an intriguing trade candidate. 

2. Someone to step up

As mentioned, the Blue Jays have become perennially competitive. Regardless of how long this window will last, it’s worth noting that none of these seasons have been exceptional. The win total per season has topped out at 92. A respectable number, but not one that is breaking any records. The last great Blue Jays season, one that was full of clutch moments and dominating performances, came back in 2015. 

That season had quite the cast of characters. From breakouts like Marco Estrada and Chris Colabello, consistent veterans in Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and playoff push boosts like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Included in this group was one player that was feared by opposing teams all season, and always came through in clutch spots. Josh Donaldson won the American League MVP that season, as a testament to his efforts to push the Jays to 93 wins and their first division title in over 20 years. A 7.1 bWAR, as well as leading the league in RBI, runs scored and total bases, was the individual performance that pushed the Jays over the hump and brought them back to relevance.

With all the talent on this Blue Jays roster, who is going to be that guy for them? It looked like it was going to be Guerrero after his ridiculous 2021 season. Since then Vlad has taken a step back and no one on this roster has stepped up. Bo Bichette has been a stud his entire career, but nothing approaching the levels of 2021 Vlad or a 2015 Donaldson. As stated, the team has the depth. With All-Star caliber players and veteran leaders galore, this team needs someone, a position player, to step up.

If this expectation amongst fans is going to be met, it’s likely to be from someone internal, and the names are no mystery. Will Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. step up and become that MVP level talent capable of putting this team on their back?

4. Postseason wins

This single expectation encapsulates all of the ones previously spoken of. This team needs to win a playoff game.

Making it to the playoffs, in spirit and in the hearts of fans, means nothing if their team gets sent home after two games. This has been the case in 2020, 2022, and now 2023. There is simply too much talent on this roster for it to become one of the butt of a joke every October.

In 2020, the Jays were just happy to be there. They had a fun but heavily flawed roster that stood little chance against a juggernaut of a Tampa Bay Rays team. Hyun Jin Ryu, Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez, Bichette, Rowdy Tellez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all enjoyed great seasons across the 60 games, but the depth just wasn’t there. If anything, it was a step in the right direction.

2021 was heartbreak, plain and simple. So many stellar performances and positive vibes wasted. It left a sour taste in the mouth of a hungry roster. One that would make the playoffs the following year.

2022 the Blue Jays lost the division to the Yankees after their historic start, but were still a really good team. However, their lack of fixing the bullpen at the deadline cost them, and they blew an eight run lead to a Mariners team that was not as good as them on paper. Nevertheless, the Jays were swept at home in embarrassing fashion. Drastic moves were made, and the composition of the team was shaken up, 2023 was going to be different.

2023 was definitely different, it was worse. The frustration from the 2022 Wild Card Series carried over the next 164 games in 2023. There was no clutch hitting, disappointing seasons all around, and a wasted season from an historic starting rotation. The Blue Jays, in some fan’s opinions, undeservedly squeaked into the playoffs, only to be silently discarded by a hot Minnesota Twins team that simply wanted it more. 

Things have to be different in 2024, and that is a sentiment echoed through the team’s front office, coaches, players, and most of all fans. Those fans expect postseason success. We’re not sure how long this window of competition will last, and this team needs to do something with it.