Blue Jays: Potential pitching depth targets ahead of the trade deadline

With less than two months before the August 1st trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays front office is already engaged in talks to improve their pitching depth. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith noted Saturday that that the Jays are already looking outside of the organization for pitching help.

Alek Manoah’s demotion opens up a slot in the rotation, and while the early returns Saturday on Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis filling in on an emergency basis were good, if there are more reliable arms available on the trade market than what the Blue Jays currently have as depth, they need to explore those options. Hyun Jin Ryu’s return from Tommy John surgery is still potentially months away, while Mitch White, Thomas Hatch and other 40-man depth arms don’t look like near-term solutions.

And bullpen depth remains a serious concern, with Adam Cimber’s implosion in a high leverage situation on Saturday, surrendering a grand slam to Twins shortstop Carlos Correa; and, Yimi García’s rapid decline this year to a 5.53 ERA in 27.2 innings with a below league average ERA+ of only 74 and two blown saves. Chad Green has yet to start a rehab assignment as he also recovers from Tommy John surgery.

In the last three years of the current competitive window, General Manager Ross Atkins has been a buyer at the deadline, and has added pitchers Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling, Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards, Bowden Francis, Brad Hand, Joakim Soria, José Berríos, Foster Griffin, Anthony Bass, Zach Pop and Mitch White in midseason deals ahead of the trade deadline.

What Trade Chips Are Left?

Apart from bench pieces like Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal, who have both struggled season-to-date, there’s not much in the way of talent on the 26-man roster the Jays could trade for pitching help. Which means they’ll likely have to dip into their farm system again, and trade prospects for MLB-quality pitching.

Assuming top Blue Jays prospect Ricky Tiedemann is untouchable, that means prospects like Spencer Horowitz, Addison Barger, Otto Lopez, Hagen Danner, Hayden Juenger, Yosver Zulueta, Orelvis Martinez, Bowden Francis, Adam Kloffenstein, Chad Dallas, Trenton Wallace, Sem Robberse, Rainer Nunez, Rafael Lantigua and Damiano Palmegiani could be traded. Could interested teams also ask for some of the Jays four 2022 top 100 amateur draft picks — Brandon Barriera, Cade Doughty, Josh Kasevich and Tucker Toman?

Pitching Depth Targets at the Trade Deadline

Looking at pitchers who are potential free agents after this season or next, and overlaying that with where their teams may be in the standings and in terms of rebuilding stages, yields a list of potential targets. And given the Blue Jays are clearly in “win now” mode, any potential acquisitions would have to clearly be a “difference-maker” who could make them a better playoff team.

In terms of starters, Shohei Ohtani obviously tops the list. He will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, but the Los Angeles Angels are only 1.0 games back in the Wild Card standings, and could the Blue Jays even afford him? A package for the 2021 AL MVP would surely start with top 100 prospect Ricky Tiedemann and would further empty the cupboards in a bare farm system.

More realistic “playoff difference-maker” targets who could improve the Jays postseason chances include the following starters and relievers on teams that will likely be sellers at the deadline:

Starter Zack Greinke and relievers Scott Barlow & Aroldis Chapman of the Kansas City Royals

With Kansas City already 19.0 games back in the Wild Card standings, they are already sellers. They also have some pieces who could immediately improve the Blue Jays bullpen, like 35-year old lefty Aroldis Chapman, who’s been throwing smoke again this year, averaging 99.5 mph on his fastball and 88.1 mph on his slider according to Statcast. He also threw the hardest strike by any MLB pitcher so far this season at 104 mph.

Having rediscovered his velocity (2.82 ERA in 22.1 innings, with 38 strikeouts and two saves), could he also turn back the clock and be the same pitcher who had four saves for the Cubs in their 2016 postseason run to a World Series championship, and ten saves and a 2.40 ERA over 41.1 playoff innings for his career? He’s on a one-year, $3.75 million deal and will be a free agent after this season.

Future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke will also be a free agent after this season, and might like an opportunity to finally win a World Series as he nears 40 in October? He’s been solid, with a 4.59 ERA and 0.9 bWAR in 13 starts and 66.2 innings. He’s making $8.5 million in 2023.

In addition to Chapman, Royals closer Scott Barlow (seven saves in eight opportunities, with 34 Ks in 23.2 innings) is also available, with another year of arbitration eligibility before he becomes a free agent after next season. He’s making $5.3 million this season.

Starters Lucas Giolito & Lance Lynn and closer Liam Hendriks of the Chicago White Sox

Could the return of former Blue Jay Liam Hendriks be that magic spark every playoff team needs some of in a World Series run? It’s certainly been an emotional return to baseball for Hendriks this year after he battled non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma after being diagnosed last December. He’s recently reclaimed his closer’s role with the White Sox, but they are 8.5 games back in the wild card chase with a 29-38 record. He’s also a potential free agent after this season if the White Sox decline their $15 million club option for 2024, and will be 35-years old next February.

The White Sox also have an $18 million club option next year on 36-year old starter Lance Lynn, who has struggled badly so far in 2023. However, he’s only two seasons removed from finishing third in the AL Cy Young vote, has struck out 80 batters in 72.1 innings, and is averaging over five innings per start. Like with Chapman and Hendriks, could the Jays get the last few puffs out of an old cigar butt?

Or could they trade for starter Lucas Giolito, who will be a free agent for the first time after this season? He’ll turn 29 in July, and is having a solid year with a bWAR of 2.1 and ERA+ of 122 thanks to a 5-4 record and 3.54 ERA over 81.1 innings, with 84 Ks against only 25 walks.

Starters Jack Flaherty & Jordan Montgomery and relievers Chris Stratton & Jordan Hicks of the St. Louis Cardinals

GM Ross Atkins might have a chance to correct his error in not trading Josh Donaldson for Cardinals then top pitching prospect Jack Flaherty ahead of the 2018 season. Flaherty will be a free agent for the first time after 2023, and given St. Louis is 7.5 games back in the NL wild card with a 27-40 record, they may be sellers ahead of the trade deadline. He’s delivered a bWAR of 1.2 and just above league average ERA+ of 103 so far this year on the back of a 4.42 ERA over 13 starts and 69.1 innings with 72 Ks, and looks to have finally put recent injury woes behind him. He’s making $5.4 million.

Should the Cardinals decide to sell at the trade deadline, they also have other pitchers who should interest the Blue Jays. Let’s assume they wont trade the retiring Adam Wainwright, who’s played his entire 18 year career with St. Louis, but lefty Jordan Montgomery certainly knows the AL East after pitching across six seasons for the NY Yankees, and has a 1.1 bWAR and ERA+ of 110 this year, with a 3.88 ERA across 13 starts and 72.0 innings, with 66 Ks against only 19 walks. He’ll also be a free agent for the first time and is making $10 million.

The Cardinals could also move relievers like Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks, both who will be unrestricted free agents after this season. Hicks turns 27 this September, and throws a sinker that averages 100.7 mph and a fastball at 101.1 mph according to Statcast. That’s helped him strike out 42 batters in only 26.2 innings, which is exactly the kind of ‘swing and miss’ stuff the Jays will need in the playoffs. Stratton is in his final year of arbitration, and has a 3.79 ERA over 35.2 innings with 39 Ks.

Starters Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen and relievers Alex Lange and José Cisnero of the Detroit Tigers

Tigers ace Eduardo Rodriguez has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2023 season. While he’s currently on the 15-day injured list dealing with a finger injury, he’s been outstanding on a bad Detroit team so far this year, with a 4-4 record, 2.13 ERA, 3.15 FIP and 67 Ks against 16 walks in 11 starts over 67.2 innings, with an ERA+ of 202 and WHIP of just 0.975 for a bWAR of 2.7.

The 30-year old is in the second year of his five-year, $77 million deal with the Tigers, with an AAV of $15.4 million. If he opts out, he’d be looking for more than the three years and $49 million left on his deal from 2024 through his age-33 season in 2026. If the Tigers sense he might be thinking of opting out of his deal, could be be dealt by the trade deadline?

Other arms of interest include 31-year old righty Michael Lorenzen, who signed a one year, $8.5 million deal with Detroit for this season. He’s been a solid innings eater, with a 3.75 ERA over 10 starts and 60.0 innings, with a FIP of 4.02 and WHIP of 1.017.

The Tigers also have some bullpen arms generating interest ahead of the trade deadline, with closer Alex Lange and pending 34-year old free agent José Cisnero the most intriguing trade targets.

Starter Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians

After winning the AL Cy Young award in the pandemic shortened 2020 season, Shane Bieber’s strikeout percentage has declined from 41.1% to 33.1% in 2021, then 25% last year, to a career low 17.6% this season. While there are concerns about his velocity, according to Statcast, his fastball and slider haven’t declined by much at all.

The 28-year old could potentially become a free agent after next season, and Cleveland has a long history of trading away starters without much team control left, including Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. The Guardians have a solid, young rotation with Tristan McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee. Should the Guardians trade him?

Could he be a “difference-maker” who could replace Manoah in a Blue Jays playoff rotation with Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt? He’s certainly got top of the rotation experience in the postseason and is a relative bargain at $10 million in salary this year. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility next year, and has pitched much better of late. For the season he has a 5-3 record with a 3.29 ERA over 14 starts and 87.2 innings. Only 64 Ks is a concern, although he did strikeout nine hitters over 7.0 innings, while only allowing three hits, a walk and no runs in his winning start on Sunday.

Bieber does have three postseason starts under his belt, including an outstanding start to propel the Guardians to an ALWC win over the Tampa Bay Rays in 2022, when he pitched 7.2 innings of one run-ball, with 8 Ks against only one walk.

Reliever Brent Suter of the Colorado Rockies

With the Rockies already well out of the playoff hunt, the Jays could trade for another lefty to add to the bullpen. 33-year-old Brent Suter is in his final year of arbitration and will be a free agent after the season. The Harvard grad has been outstanding this season, with a bWAR of 1.1 thanks to a 4-0 record and 2.06 ERA over 39.1 innings, with 31 Ks and only 12 walks.