Blue Jays: Is the front office aggressively pursuing contract extensions?

Eyebrows were raised this week when Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., in Toronto for the Winter Tour, told reporters that in terms of a long-term contract extension, “this year we haven’t had the conversations yet. I’m just going to stay focused on working hard and helping my team.”

Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins told reporters at his year end press conference last October 11th that the Jays planned to “continue [contract extension] talks this offseason.”

The front office obviously keeps things pretty close to the chest, but using the powers of deduction, we can assume he wasn’t referring to any of the players no longer with the team since October’s AL Wild Card series. Nor would he have been referring to players who’ve signed free agent or extension contract deals already. Breaking it down further to “a few core players” eliminates others.

The current front office has only extended two players since they were hired in the fall of 2015: Randall Grichuk (April 2019; five-years, $52M) and José Berríos (November 2021; seven-years, $131M). Both players were 27-years-old at the time of those extensions; Grichuk was in his second year of arbitration eligibility, while Berrios was in his third year. They have yet to extend any homegrown players to date.

Overlaying those players currently under age 27, their arbitration eligibility status, and who is considered to be a part of "core" would suggest that — based on the previous examples of Grichuk and Berríos — the current priorities for longer-term contract extensions should most likely be (in order of importance): Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Daulton Varsho, and then ace Alek Manoah and Alejandro Kirk, who are both currently pre-arbitration, but will both likely become arbitration eligible ahead of next season assuming full seasons of service time this year.

Early Bird Catches the Worm?

In general, the closer a star player gets to free agency, the more expensive it is to come to terms on a contract extension. The closer they get to free agency, the more likely the player wants to test the market to see what other teams might offer. AL MVP Aaron Judge, 30, comes to mind, earning a record nine-year, $360M free agent contract at an AAV of $40M to return to New York after leveraging competing offers from other teams like the San Francisco Giants.

Younger players will sometimes agree to more team friendly deals to buy out their arbitration years. A player like Ronald Acuña Jr. come to mind. While he’s struggled with injuries the past two seasons since a monster start to his young career, he’s still averaged an OPS+ of 133 and wRC+ of 134 to go with an 18.4 fWAR over his first five seasons. In April 2019, following his 2018 NL Rookie of the Year campaign, he signed an eight-year, $100M contract at an AAV of $12.5M.

Judge’s contract will take him through his age 39 season, whereas Acuña will be 28 when his contract, which includes two more team option years at $17M a season, expires. Injury risk and the increasing likelihood of position players breaking down in their mid-to-late thirties also means paying large sums to older players increases the risk of burdening a team with bad contracts.

The recent Rafael Devers 10-year, $313.5M extension with Boston should serve as a good template for what a potential contract could look like for Guerrero. The six-year, $200M free agent contract Carlos Correa signed to return to the Twins might help give some structure to the Bichette discussions.

For Manoah, Spencer Strider’s six-year, $75M extension with the Braves might make sense, as would an AAV around the $15.175M that Tyler Glasnow agreed to in his $30.35M, two-year extension with the Rays. The Tony Gonsolin arbitration hearing (asking for $3.4M from the Dodgers versus their offer of $3M in his ARB1 year) will also be instructive for next year, when Manoah should qualify for arbitration via ‘Super Two’ status for players in the top 22% of service time for those with between 2~3 years of MLB service time.