Toronto Blue Jays: The Bo Bichette Dilemma

What’s Fair Value for Bo?

Clearly the Blue Jays and Bichette, who is represented by CAA, have not seen eye-to-eye on his value. Recall that last season, the Blue Jays unilaterally renewed two contracts for pre-arb players — Bichette at $723,550 and Alek Manoah at $706,200 — under its formulaic process for determining pre-arbitration salaries, as reported by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

That came after Bichette turned down the Blue Jays offer of $747,100. As Bichette said afterwards, “It's pretty simple — I disagree with sticking to a formula to value us as players. I think that there's more to it than the way that they view us. I think that for players, that’s not the right way to do it.”

If you look at the analysis of comparable shortstops in their first year of salary arbitration, Carlos Correa won a $5M arbitration award after beating Houston’s offer of $4.25M in 2019, Trevor Story agreed to $5M for 2019, and Javier Baez to $5.2M for 2019 in his first year of eligibility. The r/Torontobluejays Reddit feed also had an excellent chart from u/ThQP comparing ARB1 salaries for MLB’s top shortstops as Bo enters his first year of arbitration eligibility. Shout out to Jays Journal commenter Tassix for the heads up!

Of course there’s been inflation in excess of 5% each of the past two years — today’s price is not yesterday’s price — so adjusting those 2019 figures for 5% annualized inflation would imply a 2023 value of $6.1M. That figure happens to be bang in-line with the industry-wide accepted model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz here, which projects Bichette earning $6.1M in 2023.

If the Blue Jays front office and Bichette’s advisors at CAA are pragmatic, they should probably settle in the $5.9~6.3M range for 2023. Based on similar numbers for ARB1 comparable shortstops, it is highly unlikely that Bichette will be awarded his $7.5M number, so the arbitration panel would have no choice but to award the Jays’ number of $5M.

The Blue Jays Case

Bichette is not without his flaws, particularly on defense. While his footwork at shortstop is much improved, you cannot teach arm strength; according to Statcast, he ranked 21st in MLB last year at 84.8mph from SS, below league-average 85.9mph. His arm is likely better suited at second base, where the MLB average was 81mph last year. He also committed the second-most errors amongst MLB shortstops at 23, trailing only Baez’s 26. His Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) of -16 was dead last amongst qualified shortstops. For reference, the Astros Jeremy Peña was a +16.

Bichette also ranked 30th in Outs Above Average (OAA) at -7, a full 28 out below MLB leader Dansby Swanson's +21. Worryingly, his OAA was -10 on balls where he had to come in to make the play. With the end of the shift in 2023, there may be more balls he has to get to in front of him given Matt Chapman won’t be able to compensate as much in front of him on the left side of the infield.

And from an organizational perspective, if it appears unlikely they’ll be able to agree to a long term extension with Bichette, would it make sense for the Jays to explore trade offers? Of course, they should always explore how other teams might value their players, but unlike the Washington Nationals, who dealt Soto last summer, the Jays are currently in their window of contention, and all-in on a deep postseason run. It would be extremely hard to justify to fans trading away Bichette when the team is clearly contending and not rebuilding.

Were the Blue Jays “Really After” Bogaerts?

If Scott Boras is to be believed, they were. As per Boras in an interview with Bob Nightengale ofUSA Today, “Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after him.” As per front office practice, they rarely comment publicly on such reports. Boras doesn’t represent Bichette, so all his comments could do is lower his trade value if it implies the Blue Jays have soured on him. Or were they planning to move him to second base if they signed Bogaerts? That move would have needed buy-in from Bichette, and given the disagreement over value, is it fair to guess that Bo never agreed to that?

Could the arbitration dispute also sour the relationship, like it did with Marcus Stroman when he lost his case in February 2018 and was awarded the club’s offer of $6.5M instead of the $6.9M he’d requested? He ended up being traded with a year and a half of team control left at the July 2019 trade deadline when the team was clearly in rebuilding mode. What could three years of Bichette during a competitive window be worth?

The Jays don’t have anyone on the 26-man roster or MLB ready on the farm to replace Bichette at shortstop. Santiago Espinal and Otto López can back him up in a pinch, as could Matt Chapman. Prospects Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez are on the 40-man roster, but probably both need more seasoning in the minors.

Should the Jays Explore a Trade?

Just reading that headline sounds crazy. Why would you trade a superstar ARB1 player entering his age 25 season, who is coming off a 4.5 fWAR season and has three more years of team control? The only answer to that would be if the Blue Jays were blown away with a trade package they couldn’t refuse, using a template like what San Diego put together for Juan Soto at the trade deadline in 2022, with multiple top 100 prospects, MLB-ready players, and a few lottery tickets with high ceilings.

Soto had one more year of service time, and had put up an fWAR of 19.0 through his first four seasons over 464 games and 2,003 plate appearances. He’s also not known for his defense, but for his bat, with a batting title in 2020 after hitting .351, three Silver Slugger Awards, two All-Star selections and the 2019 World Series title. Bo’s career 11.8 fWAR is over 393 games and 1,727 plate appearances, with an All-Star selection in 2021, so he’s not worth as much as Soto. But he comes with another year of team control.

However, trading Bichette would not only open a gaping hole at the No. 2 spot in the batting order, but there’s no clear heir apparent to replace him at shortstop. This means any trade return might have to include an MLB-ready shortstop, as well as potential replacements for pending free agents after the 2023 season like Hyun Jin Ryu, Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Anthony Bass.

Looking at teams that need a shortstop, the Dodgers and Braves come to mind after losing Trea Turner and Darby Swanson, respectively. Boston is also likely looking for a post-Bogaerts solution, but it’s unlikely the Blue Jays would want to face Bichette on an opposing AL East team for the next three seasons or more.

The Dodgers have the best farm system of those potential trade partners, so here’s one potential trade package for Bo to spur the debate, which assumes that Barger is ready and could form a LHH/RHH platoon at shortstop with Espinal for the Blue Jays in 2022. Would a package of Dodgers prospects like potential ace RHP Bobby Miller (sixth-best RHP prospect on MLB Pipeline, ranked 26th overall as per their 2022 mid season update), 3B Miguel Vargas (No. 41 overall as per MLB Pipeline), lefty swinging CF James Outman (No. 13 in the Dodgers’ top 30), as well as a former hard-throwing Jays prospect RHP Nick Frasso (No. 17 in the Dodgers system) be enough for Toronto to trade Bichette? Just for reference, Baseball Trade Values (which admittedly isn’t a great indicator) suggests that would be a moderate overpay in value by Toronto at 94.1 versus 76.5 in return.

St. Louis also has some interesting prospects and talent, but they have 2021 Gold Glover Tommy Edman at shortstop. If they could convince Bo to move to 2B, what would a package of three top 100 prospects from the Cardinals look like? Prospect 3B/OF Jordan Walker (sixth overall in the 2022 updated MLB Pipeline ranking) is blocked at 3B in St. Louis by Nolan Arenado, and could replace Chapman after 2023. 55th overall prospect Masyn Winn is a plus defender at SS, and as per his MLB Pipeline profile, “had 10 throws measured at 95-plus mph by Statcast in Low-A Southeast in 2021 and famously unleashed a 100.5 mph throw in the 2022 All-Star Futures Game that set a Statcast record.” Add in No. 88 MLB prospect in lefty swinging OF Alec Burleson to replace Kiermaier after 2023, and Baseball Trade Values sees that as fair trade value for both teams at 98.5 to 94.1.

What do you think Jays fans? Would you trade Bichette? And for what sort of return?