Blue Jays 2024 Season Preview: Outfielders

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Hope spring eternal for Blue Jays fans, despite an underwhelming offseason. In this respect, anticipation is only continuing to grow, with pitchers and catchers set to report to Dunedin next week.

We recently previewed the Blue Jays' catchers and infielders, then starting pitchers, based on their current 40-man roster on MLB.com. Along these lines, we now turn our attention to the outfield.

George Springer

If you were to look at a stat line for a Major League player that included 21 home runs and 72 RBI, this would be deemed decent enough. If you produced a .258/.327/.405 slash line, .732 OPS and 102 OPS+, this would be considered above average.

However, mention that it was George Springer who achieved these totals last season and it suddenly becomes more concerning, such are the levels he has previously reached during his 10 years in the big leagues. All indications are that he is now on a downward trend in his career, in part 'helped' by his advancing age.

In particular, Springer's batting average was his worst since his rookie year; while the OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+ were all the lowest of his career. If nothing else, his home run and RBI totals were helped by coming up clutch with a .269 batting average with runners in scoring position. The MLB average was .256 in 2023.

The 34-year-old's struggles were highlighted by going 0-for-35 towards the end of July. The Blue Jays were even forced to moving him out of his leadoff spot, as they looked for any way to get him back on track.

Defensively, Springer was moved from centre to right field to help keep him effective, but it ultimately couldn't offset his declining defensive value. As per Jays Journal's Edward Eng, among other things his Range (Outs Above Average) fell from the 76th percentile in 2022 to 66th last year, while his Arm Value dropped dramatically from the 54th percentile to 14th percentile.

The four-time All-Star's overall decline even led to offseason speculation from Sportsnet's Jeff Blair, that the Blue Jays were considering trying to get out from the remainder of his contract. Instead, the team still retain the second half of the six-year, $150M deal he signed at the beginning of 2021.

In fairness to Springer, it should be noted he wasn't helped by a viral infection that impacted him for several weeks last year. He had to take antibiotics and even use oxygen canisters while playing.

Regardless, the two-time Silver Slugger's ZiPS projections have him at a similar level this coming season, with a .254/.328/.432 slash line and .760 OPS. Interestingly, they also have him replicating his 2023 totals of 21 homers and 72 RBI, but overall, his days as a starter on defence appear to be numbered.

Kevin Kiermaier

Compared to offence and pitching, defence is the least appreciated and glamorous aspect of the game of baseball. However, this doesn't make it any less important, with Kevin Kiermaier serving as a shining example of this.

Kiermaier was, quite simply, sensation in the outfield during 2023. He won the Fielding Bible Award as best defensive centre fielder in baseball, received his fourth Gold Glove and his 2.2 dWAR was his best since 2017.

On the flip side, the 33-year-old did not get selected for the All-Star Game, which was a travesty. Regardless, this cannot take away from his success last year, or his standing as one of the best statistical outfielders in Major League history.

For all the attention that is -- quite rightly -- paid to Keirmaier's defence, he also had a fine season with his bat. At one stage on course for his best ever offensive year, he ended up with the second-best batting average of his 11 year Major League career, as well as his best slugging percentage and OPS since 2017.

With all this said, there was an understandable collective sense of sadness when the 2015 Platinum Glove winner took to social media after last season, to essentially say goodbye to Toronto. This seemed to be reinforced by referring to the city and the Blue Jays in the past tense, when he was interviewed by Mike Wilner on the Toronto Star's podcast, Deep Left Field.

However, as the weeks passed, Kiermaier had still not signed for anyone, presenting an opportunity for the Blue Jays to strike. And as 2023 came to a close they did just that, re-signing him to a one-year deal worth $10.5M.

With the Fort Wayne, Indiana native back in tow, the Blue Jays should once again prove to have one of the best outfield's in all of baseball, which will in turn make the defence good overall. What will be more interesting, will be if he can continue to be effective on offence.

In this respect ZiPS have Kiermaier projected to not be quite at the same level this coming season, with six homers and 39 RBI contributing towards a .245/.306/.377 slash line and .684 OPS. In fairness though he is in line to hit last in the lineup, but overall, he should continue to prove invaluable to the Blue Jays in 2024.

Daulton Varsho

As excellent as Kiermarier was in the outfield for the Blue Jays last season, Daulton Varsho was even better. In fact, you can make a case for the latter being the best defensive player in all of baseball during 2023.

Varsho led all Major League players with 29 Defensive Runs Saved. (For some context, Kiermaier had 18.) As per Fielding Bible, this helped the Blue Jays lead all teams in the category, 17 ahead of second place.

The 27-year-old also finished second in the league with 2.81 dWAR, while proving his durability with a team-high 157 games on the outfield grass. He was also reliable and consistent with only two fielding errors all season, and it remains a wonder why he has yet to win a Gold Glove.

Varsho was initially expected to move over to centre field in 2024 to make up for the loss of Kiermaier, but will now remain in left field, perhaps in a platoon with Davis Schneider. There is nothing to suggest he won't continue to excel defensively.

Offensively it's admittedly another story, at least based on last year. The 2017 second round draft pick struggled to make contact with the ball, as highlighted by a .220/.285/.389 slash line, .674 OPS and 85 OPS+.

However, this doesn't mean there isn't potential there for Varsho to be a fine offensive player. Consider that when he did make contact with the bat he was effective, finishing third on the Blue Jays in home runs and fifth in RBI.

Further, consider that when the former Arizona Diamondback does get on base he's dangerous, ranking third on the team in stolen bases. With him in the 95th percentile for base running, it is no wonder he was first in the AL in bunts.

In respect of Varsho's ZiPS projections he is in line to seem some improvement, with a .241/.304/.455 slash line and .759 OPS. Further encouragement comes with the projection of 25 home runs and a career-high 77 RBI, which would be excellent for the Blue Jays as long as he does continue to provide stellar defence.

Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes is in an unusual position where he could potentially experience the highs and lows of Major League baseball without actually playing. Consider that at one point during the offseason he was projected as the starting left fielder, due to Varsho provisionally moving to centre field to replace the at-the-time departed Kiermaier.

With all due respect to Lukes this would have not been a good situation for the Blue Jays come opening day. Now though, he could well be about to experience the other extreme of losing a roster spot altogether, in part due to the recent signing of Justin Turner.

In truth though, the 29-year-old is no stranger to experiencing the precarious nature of baseball. Consider that last season saw him make the opening day roster, with him being recalled five times to the Blue Jays in total.

Even when he was with the Blue Jays, Lukes didn't get many chances to show what he could do. He totalled just 31 plate appearances in 29 games. It's no wonder he couldn't get any rhythm going, with a substandard .192/.290/.308 slash line, .598 OPS and 67 OPS+.

It really is unfair to be too critical of the Portland, Oregon native's offence or lack thereof, with him just needing more time and chances. Consider how effective he's been in Triple-A, with a .289/.355/.427 slash line and .783 OPS in 335 games over four seasons.

Along these lines, Luke does have some promising ZiPS projections for the season ahead. albeit it does come with the caveat of them being calculated prior to the addition of Turner. Regardless, for now they have him playing 95 games for the Blue Jays in 2024.

Further, the 2015 seventh round draft pick is projected to hit five homer runs and 41 RBI this year. This would contribute to a much improved .265/.321/.382 slash line and .703 OPS.

Even accounting for Lukes potentially not getting as much playing time as currently projected, this alludes to the upside that is seen with his bat. As a final note, it is worth noting he could offer some depth versatility in the outfield, having manned all three positions in his limited action last year.

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George Springer

Kevin Kiermaier

Daulton Varsho

Nathan Lukes

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