3 surprising Blue Jays that will make the 2024 Opening Day roster, and 2 that won’t

With a little over a week away from the start of the 2024 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays has yet to finalize their Opening Day roster, as the battles for potential roles have been strong and fierce. With candidates ranging from promising prospects to reclamation projects to established veterans, they will be all vying for a spot in the Jays’ major league lineup when it all begins on March 28.

So who will make it in the end, and who will be left heartbroken? Here, we will look at three Jays players that will surprisingly earn a spot on the 26-man roster and two that will fall short when the regular season commences next week.

3 surprising Blue Jays that will make the Opening Day roster

Brian Serven

After losing significant catching depth in the organization when Tyler Heineman was claimed off waivers by the Mets back in December, the Jays pivoted to recover some of that depth by making a waiver claim of their own in obtaining the services of Brian Serven from the Chicago Cubs in January. As a career .195 hitter with a .562 OPS in 73 games, expectations for Serven were quite low, with hopes that he could be at least a serviceable player if called upon at any point in the upcoming season.

What seemed to be a desperate move at the time has turned out to be pure gold after witnessing his strong performance in spring training. In 10 games, Serven has hit a solid .278, while leading the team in home runs (3), RBI (12), slugging percentage (.889) and second only to catching teammate Alejandro Kirk in OPS at 1.270. 

With Danny Jansen starting the year on the IL, Serven has certainly shown more than enough with his play to assure the team that he can be a solid backup option to Kirk to start the 2024 season. As a result, the Jays shouldn’t need to rush Jansen in his recovery and rehab, knowing that they have a strong tandem to hold the fort in the meantime.

Nathan Lukes

The magical encore performance of Nathan Lukes for the second straight spring training can no longer go unnoticed. After spending his entire career in the minors, Lukes finally caught the attention of the Jays’ brass at age 28 last spring when he hit .286 with an OPS close to .800, along with 6 runs scored, 2 doubles, 2 triples, 6 RBI while walking more than striking out in 19 spring games played. In doing so, he beat out prospective hopeful Addison Barger for a final spot on the Opening Day roster in 2023.

This year, Lukes has been at it again and has actually been even more impressive, compiling a stellar .394 batting average with a .977 OPS, along with 6 runs scored, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 5 RBI and a stolen base to boot in just 13 games of action. Added to the fact he has been strong defensively as well, making all the plays in the field with a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage, he is certainly making a strong case to be included once again on the 26-man roster to start the 2024 season with the Jays.

With some of his main competition such as Alan Roden, Cam Eden and Davis Schneider all having just average showings in their spring performances thus far, it might just be enough to convince management to give Lukes his well-deserved spot for Opening Day. Just hopefully this time around, he will get a fair chance to show what he can do. Since last season, he ended up being used only sparingly, limiting his overall effectiveness and impact in the end.

2 Blue Jays hopefuls that will come up short

Daniel Vogelbach

With the Jays desperately needing a power bat to boost their offence, they took a flyer on free agent left-handed designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach by signing him to a minor league deal with an invite to training camp. After all, he put his power on full display back in his 2019 All-Star season when he hit a career-best 30 home runs to go along with 76 RBI in 144 games played. His first stint with the Jays ended up being short-lived, so they hope this potential second stint with the team will be more impactful.

So far this spring, Vogelbach has done everything he can to impress the team’s brass. In 10 games, he has compiled a strong .790 OPS with 4 runs scored, 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 3 RBI. More importantly, one of his home runs was a statement blast against the Jays’ arch nemesis Gerrit Cole, which quickly made fans adore him. However, he has hit only .214, which is sadly more or less in line with his typical low batting average throughout his career. In particular, his recent stretch of going just 3-for-16 is certainly not helping his cause in landing a potential spot on the team roster as Opening Day draws near.

Now with the recent addition of Votto, who also hits left-handed, but has also shown the consistent ability to hit for average in addition to power, there may no longer be a need for Vogelbach due to the numbers game. Especially when it makes no sense to have the redundancy of deploying the trio of Justin Turner, Votto, and Vogelbach all in the same lineup at once. If so, it would force at least a couple of them to see more action in the field, which could prove detrimental to the team in the long run. So sad to say, it has been a great audition by Vogelbach, but he may need to bring him game elsewhere if the Jays can’t fit him in.

Spencer Horwitz

For promising prospect Spencer Horwitz, he put himself on the map with a huge breakout season last year with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate Buffalo Bisons. In 107 games, he amassed a stellar .337 batting average, .945 OPS, along with 61 runs scored, 30 doubles, 10 home runs, 72 RBI, 78 walks and just 72 strikeouts in 392 at-bats. In doing so, he was named the Bisons’ MVP at the end of the minor league season.

Horwitz also held his own in the limited played time he had when he was called up to the majors by the Jays in 2023. He hit .256 with 5 runs scored, a pair of doubles, a home run and 7 RBI in just 15 games of action. As a result, at age 26, he appeared primed for a more major role with the club heading into 2024. However, Horwitz has had a disappointing spring thus far, managing only 4 hits in 32 at-bats for a dismal .125 average and a .419 OPS. Nevertheless, he has continued to show some great plate discipline though, with 6 walks to go along with 9 strikeouts in the 13 games he has played so far.

On top of his less-than-stellar showing in training camp, Horwitz has Lukes currently outperforming him for the potential fourth outfielder role, and both Votto and Vogelbach in the backup designated hitter/first baseman role. As a result, Horwitz looks to begin the 2024 season once again in the minors despite having a bat that is roaring to go any time now. On the good side, if he can get his hitting back in order in due time, he should be among one of the first call-ups this year when the Jays need an offensive bat to add to their lineup.