3 Blue Jays predicted to improve, 3 to regress per FanGraphs Steamer projections

Part of the beauty and fascination with professional sports, is not knowing what to expect from your team or teams. However, what if Blue Jays supporters and baseball fans in general, could have some idea of what to expect next season?

Well, look no further than FanGraphs' batter and pitcher projections for the 2024 season. While not an exact science by any stretch, it still makes for intriguing reading.

Of course, all we're really interested in, are the projections for the Blue Jays specifically. Here is a look at six players who are predicted to either regress or improve next year:

Chris Bassitt - Regression

If you were going to use just one word to sum up Chris Bassitt this past season, 'durable' would be a good description. He proved to be remarkably resilient during the first season of his three-year deal with the Blue Jays.

Bassitt lead the American League with 16 wins, 33 starts and 826 batters faced, which were all single-season career highs. He also led the Blue Jays specifically, with 21 quality starts and 200 total innings, which were also both single-season bests.

In addition, the 34-year-old recorded a 3.60 ERA, 4.28 FIP and 1.175 WHIP. When it was all said and done, he was nominated for the All-MLB Team and finished in 10th place for AL Cy Young voting.

With all this, what can Blue Jays fans expect Bassitt to do for an encore next season? Well, they probably shouldn't get their hopes up.

That's because FanGraphs have the 2021 All-Star projected to regress somewhat in 2024. In fairness this should be expected, given the combination of his age and coming off a season of so many aforementioned career bests.

In this respect, Bassitt is anticipated to see his record drop from 16-8 to 12-11. He's also projected to see his ERA rise from 3.60 to 4.24, and his WHIP from 1.18 to 1.29.

Further, the Toledo, Ohio native will also be marginally less effectiveness with his FIP, strike rate and walk rate. They will go respectively from 4.28 to 4.39, 22.5 percent to 20.9 percent, and 7.1 percent to 7.2 percent.

However, if you're looking for some encouragement, consider that Bassitt's level of consistency and durability was not expected going into the 2023 season. As much as we pay due respect to FanGraphs' projections, the Blue Jays righty is more than capable of proving them wrong.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Improvement

We've already written about how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is among those with the most to prove next year for the Blue Jays. He is fighting against an ever-growing narrative that 2021 was the exception rather than the rule, when it comes to fulfilling his potential.

Along these lines, how your perceive FanGraphs' projections for the 2024 season is all about your perspective. As the saying goes, perception is reality.

What we mean by this is, in one respect FanGraphs have the three-time All-Star set to overall have the second-best offensive season of his career to date. However, this is countered by it still falling a fair bit short of the standards he set during his 2021 campaign, when he finished second in voting for the AL MVP.

Delving into the projections, Guerrero is in line to produce a .285/.366/.527 slash line and .893 OPS. For comparison, this is a strong jump from this past season, with a slash line of .264/.345/.788 and an OPS of .788.

In addition, the 24-year-old is projected to have 36 home runs, 107 RBI and 69 walks. This year by comparison, he produced 26 homers, 94 RBI and 67 walks.

In some respects, the crazy things is the 2023 season wasn't terrible for Guerrero, who led the Blue Jays in home runs, RBI, walks and OBP. Further, there is no denying his projections for next year represent both a strong improvement and excellent statistics in their own right.

However, this again speaks to how much is expected of the Montreal native. And it again all comes down to his 2021 campaign, when he broke out and showed the baseball world what he was capable.

During that season, Guerrero led the Majors in home runs and runs, while also pacing the AL in OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+. As such, despite being projected by FanGraphs to improve next season, it still won't be enough for certain fans and media analysts.

Alejandro Kirk - Improvement

As referenced with Guerrero, Alejandro Kirk is another player with a lot to prove next year in Toronto. Unfortunately not all of it is of his own doing, given the Blue Jays' decision to trade away their top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno.

Moreno went on to have a breakout season in Arizona, as he helped the Diamondbacks go all the way to the World Series. This led to critics subsequently proclaiming the Blue Jays had gotten rid of the wrong catcher, albeit with that wonderful benefit of hindsight. (And yes, we are being a bit facetious.)

Kirk had actually helped persuade the Blue Jays to move Moreno, due to his own breakout season a year earlier. His excellent 2022 campaign saw him named an All-Star for the first time, while also earning his inaugural Silver Slugger Award.

Unfortunately for the 25-year-old he suffered a regression this past season, specifically on offence. It's not that he was outright horrific at the plate, but he did see a significant dip in his productivity. (He did continue to provide stellar catching behind the plate.)

In particular, Kirk had single-season worsts of a .358 slugging percentage, .692 OPS and 93 OPS+. In addition, he saw his home run, RBI and walk numbers drop from 14, 63 and 63 respectively, to 8, 43 and 42, while his .250 batting average was nothing to write home about.

With all this said (written), what can we expect from a player facing so much pressure to prove himself in 2024? Well, we can report that FanGraphs project the right-handed bat will trend in the right direction.

However, it must be stressed that this predicted improvement does come with a provisio. More specifically, that Kirk's production is based on playing in 85 games, as opposed to 139 and 123 in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

This is why FanGraphs have the Mexico native hitting 10 homers and 41 RBI, while manufacturing 36 walks. However, his .275/.359/.435 slash line and .794 OPS make for positive reading and contribute towards the hope that he will indeed be better in 2024.

Yusei Kikuchi - Regression

The 2023 campaign was all kinds of fantastic for Yusei Kikuchi. He turned out to be a pleasant surprise, as he enjoyed the best season of his five years in the Majors.

Kikuchi set single-season bests with 11 wins, a 3.86 ERA, 110 ERA+ and 1.270 WHIP. He also tied a walk-rate low of 6.9 percent, while finishing with the second-best FIP and strike rate of his career, at 4.12 and 25.9 percent respectively.

It all resulted in the 32-year-old becoming a reliable fourth option in the Blue Jays rotation, as he tied his career-high of 32 starts from his rookie year. He also proved to be durable, by finishing fourth on the team with a career-best 167.2 innings pitched.

The question is, what can we expect for an encore from Kikuchi in 2024? Well, we've previously written that we believe he peaked in 2023, and it turns out FanGraphs have a similar outlook.

In reality it makes sense the 2021 All-Star is set to regress next year, or at the very least offer doubt given his erratic play during his time in the Majors. And in fairness, while projected to trend in the wrong direction, he's not expected to fall off the proverbial cliff.

In this respect, Kikuchi's projected 10 wins, 4.03 ERA and 4.25 FIP would all still be the second-best of his time in the Majors. Although we appreciate these statistics can just as easily be viewed negatively in respect of how underwhelming they appear.

The Japan native is predicted to have the same 1.27 WHIP as this past season, which is a positive. (It certainly isn't a negative.) Meanwhile, his 24.8 percent strike rate and 8.6 percent walk rate would both be the second-best of his career in their respective categories.

If nothing else, a factor in all of this which can't be quantifed, is that 2024 will represent the final season of Kikuchi's three-year deal with the Blue Jays. Assuming he harbours ambitions of landing another Major League contract somewhere, he will be supremely motivated to pitch well in Toronto.

Alek Manoah - Improvement

Admittedly, while we are using the term improvement, it's a generous use of the word. It would be pretty tough for Alek Manoah to be any worse than he was this past season.

In every respect, Manoah's 2023 campaign was a complete disaster, both on and off the field. With most of it arguably of his own doing, he looked nothing like the pitcher who dominated the Majors the previous season.

With an inflated sense of ego and dare we say it midriff, the 25-year-old set himself up to fail, thinking that he'd already made it. Instead, from opening day as the staff ace onwards, everything trended in the wrong direction.

Manoah had single-season career worst statistics across the board, including a 5.87 ERA, 6.01 FIP and 1.740 WHIP. This was in stark contrast to his career bests a year earlier, of a 2.24 ERA, 3.35 FIP and 0.992 WHIP.

The question is, what can we expect next year? If nothing else at least FanGraphs have the 2022 All-Star improving, not that this is exactly the most daring of predictions.

Regardless, Manoah is projected to have a 4.75 ERA, 4.92 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. In addition, they have his strike rate improving from 19.0 percent to 20.7 percent, and walk rate from an unsightly 14.2 percent to 9.4 percent.

Admittedly none of these statistics stand out as impressive, but any improvement has to help right ... right?!?! If nothing else, as per the Gate 14 Podcast, at least the Homestead, Florida native appears to be putting the work in to improve,

In addition, general manager Ross Atkins has indicated Manoah will be given every opportunity to secure the fifth spot in the rotation next season. Certainly he has the talent to succeed, and even potentially outperform the projections FanGraphs have for him.