5 Blue Jays with the most to prove in 2024

Alejandro Kirk

When it comes to having something to prove next season, in fairness to Alejandro Kirk, not all of this is on him. The Blue Jays increased the pressure on both the player and the organisation itself, with their previous decision to trade away top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno.

Moreno went on to have a breakout year in 2023, as he produced a slash line of .284/.339/.408 and .747 OPS in 111 games. He also did his part come playoff time, helping the Arizona Diamondbacks make it all the way to the World Series.

Back to Kirk, he had his own breakout year back in 2022, with 14 homers, 63 RBI and 63 walks, contributing towards a .285/.372/.415 slash line and .786 OPS. As a result, he earned his first All-Star selection and inaugural Silver Slugger Award, arguably contributing towards the decision to move Moreno.

Unfortunately for everyone concerned, the 25-year-old took a step back this past season. He dropped down essentially across the board offensively, with eight home runs, 43 RBI, 42 walks, a .250/.334/.358 slash line and .692 OPS.

It didn't help that these numbers also compared unfavorably to what Moreno was doing in Arizona, with critics arguing the Blue Jays got rid of the wrong catcher. It should be noted Kirk was third-best with a 1.7 dWAR among all Major League catchers, but even here he trailed behind Moreno, who led the way with a 3.1 dWAR.

Unsurprisingly, president Mark Shapiro still believes the trade was a good one. (We'll be getting to the other crucial part of the Blue Jays' deal with the Diamondbacks in due course.) As relayed by Sportsnet, Shapiro said; "You can't evaluate a trade in the short term. You've got to give it four or five years, to understand whether a trade was effective or not."

How much fans and baseball media alike may want to get on board with Shaprio's take, is open to debate. Regardless, what we do know is that Kirk -- unfairly also burdened with being in tandem with an injury-prone Danny Jansen -- needs to be more consistent in 2024.

Daulton Varsho

Along with Kirk, Daulton Varsho is the other player feeling a pressure which is outside of his control. That's because he's the player the Blue Jays believed was worthy of giving up Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for.

Before we look at the pressure aspect further though, it's worth considering where Varsho excelled. More specifically on defence, which you can argue he played better than anyone else in the Majors during 2023.

This was best highlighted by the 27-year-old leading all players with 29 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). By extension, he helped the Blue Jays also lead the way as a team with 85 DRS, which was 17 ahead of the nearest competitor. (All statistics as per Fielding Bible.)

In addition, as per ESPN, Varsho ranked second in all of baseball with a 2.8 dWAR, ironically only behind Moreno's 3.1. He was also consistent and durable, with just one error all season while leading the Blue Jays in games played on defence.

Given all this, you can understand why there was an outcry when the 2017 second round draft pick was snubbed for a Gold Glove. As teammate Chris Bassitt put it, only baseball could be so stupid not to award one to a player who lead the league in DRS.

So with all this, why exactly do we consider Varsho to be under so much pressure next year? Simply put it comes down to his offence, or lack thereof, in 2023.

The Marshfield, Wisconsin native took a step back with his bat this past season, as he had his lowest slash line, OPS and OPS+ since his rookie year. And yet it wasn't all bad, as he was tied for third on the team in home runs, third in stolen bases and fifth in RBI.

The reality is that the increased pressure on Varsho to perform better offensively, simply comes down to how well the players he came in for, did during 2023 in Arizona. He does need to be better next year, but the reality is he almost has unfair expectations placed on him through no fault of his own.

Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal is more along the lines of Guerrero than Kirk and Varsho, in that the pressure on him is not impacted by any outside circumstances. Pure and simple, he disappointed this past season, albeit not to the same extent as Guerrero.

The 2023 campaign definitely represented a regression for Espinal. He was nothing like the player who a year earlier set single-season highs in hits, home runs, RBI and walks, and was selected to his first All-Star Game.

The 29-year-old was a major disappointment, as he had the worst batting average of his four-year career, as well as the lowest OPS and OPS+ since his rookie season. In addition, while not renowned for his power hitter, two home runs and 25 RBI is still not going to cut it.

It didn't help that Espinal also struggled for form defensively. He was moved all around the infield, but was unable to find form or stability at any one position.

As we've asked previously, this leads to the question of which version is closer to the real Santiago Espinal? Is it the one from 2022, or last year?

From out perspective, it's not as if the Dominican Republic native has suddenly become a terrible player overnight. In this respect -- at least offensively -- think back to how he finished this past season.

If there's anything to be encouraged about in his game, Espinal complied a .375 batting average across his final 51 at-bats of the 2023 season. This resulted in a 152 wRC+, six doubles, six runs driven in and four runs scored.

As such, there is a certain amount of confidence in Espinal's ability to rebound next year. Certainly Blue Jays fans will be hoping so, because he sure has a lot to prove to show his 2022 season wasn't a one-off flash in the pan.

Alek Manoah

We can't imagine there's any Blue Jays fan surprised to see Alek Manoah's name included on this list. And really, of the five players included, he's the one with the most to prove in 2024.

In this respect, unlike Kirk and Varsho, Manoah cannot blame any outside influence for the increased pressure on him next season. This is a situation entirely of his own making, no matter what information has been put out there in an attempt at damage control, e.g. claiming a potential injury stopped him from reporting to Buffalo after his second demotion.

This is about a 25-year-old getting past his ego and sense of entitlement, and actually being humble and disciplined enough to put the effort in. By turning up overweight for spring training this year, it alluded to him thinking he'd already made it after a spectacular 2022 campaign.

In this respect Manoah did indeed perform exceptionally, as he went 16-7 in 31 starts, producing a 2.24 ERA, 3.35 FIP and 0.992 WHIP in the process. He was named an All-Star for the first time, finished third in AL Cy Young voting and received some MVP consideration.

However, things couldn't have been more different this past season, as the righty came crashing back down to earth. He went from the opening day starter and staff ace, to being the only unreliable member of the regular rotation.

At one point it got so bad the Blue Jays sent Manoah down to the Florida Complex League, to work on his game. We would argue he was brought back up too fast but regardless, his situation just continued to spiral downwards and his season ended early in part due to his refusal to report to Buffalo, no matter what claims have been made since.

Now, it's a case of if the Homestead, Florida native can repair his relationship with the organisation and get back to performing at the high level he's (more than) capable of. As per videos shared by the Gate 14 Podcast, the early signs at least look promising, with him on Instagram being shown training in the gym.

As per The Athletic's Kaitlyn McGrath, It helps that general manger Ross Atkins says Manoah has the right to a strong leg up for a spot in the rotation, while Kevin Gausman stuck up for his teammate in a recent interview with the Foul territory Podcast. However, others can only help the pitcher so much; ultimately, it's up to him to prove he's capable of being both less egotistical and prepared to work hard enough to rediscover his previous form.