Pitchers taking advantage of the missing Vladdy protection in Blue Jays lineup

Fifteen games usually isn't enough to tell you anything about a baseball team. But that doesn't mean certain things can't be gleaned from that small of a sample size, as the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays are showing us.

The team has been ravaged by injuries this year, but the struggling offense also deserves some of the blame for the team's 6-9 start. Struggling might be a generous way to say it, as the Blue Jays have scored only 57 runs in 15 games, an average 3.8 runs per game. By comparison, the Blue Jays scored 798 runs in 162 games last season, an average of 4.93 runs per game.

One of the reasons for the lack of offense may be the performance of the hitters penciled in the lineup around All-Star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero has batted third in the order in each of the 15 games played so far this season, hitting just one home run but drawing 11 walks in 65 plate appearances. Pitchers are being careful with him — despite the fact Guerrero is hitting .321 with an .880 OPS — which means the second and fourth hitters haven't produced well. His walk rate is up to 16.9 percent from last season's 11.9 percent.

Lack of Guerrero protection may be one of the reasons for Blue Jays offensive struggles

Now, there is some debate as to whether lineup protection is actually a real, quantifiable thing. But common sense at least suggests a pitcher may carefully pitch around a guy, especially if there is little risk of an inning getting out of control with consecutive hits or players reaching base safely. Pitchers can stay out of the strike zone, or at least avoid giving a slugger like Guerrero something he can crush, if there is a chance to limit the Blue Jay damage to just a Guerrero walk or a single. The inning stalls when the next couple of hitters fail to capitalize.

So far this season, Blue Jays number 2 hitters are batting .250 with an on-base percentage of .329 and an OPS of .762. They've accounted for three home runs, two doubles and 11 runs batted in. Number 4 hitters — the "cleanup" spot — are hitting .197 with an OBP of .231 and an OPS of .542, with four doubles, a home run and seven RBI. Both spots have combined for 29 strikeouts and 11 walks. By comparison, the 2025 Blue Jay number 2 hitters hit .280 with an OBP of .359 with an OPS of .816. Cleanup hitters batted .268 with an OBP of .346 with an OPS of .802. Guerrero batted third for 86 games in 2025, posting a .903 OPS in that spot.

Of course, it is fair to ask if production from the number 2 and 4 spots really have an effect on what Guerrero sees from pitchers. If it does in fact have any impact, there are some signs that things are improving. Daulton Varsho has gone 7-for-20 in the 2 spot with two home runs in five games, while Jesus Sanchez is 5-for-21 in the cleanup spot, with three doubles and a home run in five games. And reinforcements could be on the way, for example, injured outfielder Addison Barger is making progress from his ankle injury.

The Los Angeles Dodgers currently have one of the best offenses in baseball right now, leading the majors with a team OPS of .864 and .289 average, while hitting 29 home runs. They've scored 95 runs in 16 games, largely because their entire lineup is contributing. If the Blue Jays want to get back to October, it's going to take a much better performance from the lineup as a whole.

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