Latest Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract projection should be music to Toronto’s ears

The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. context extension saga isn’t going away anytime soon.

Not only is Guerrero one of the best players in baseball, but he’s also an impending free agent, so every fanbase is licking their lips at the thought of adding his bat to their lineup at the trade deadline. 

And at this point, it’s safe to assume that everyone in and around the Blue Jays organization is tired of having this storyline dominate every headline around the team. 

After both parties failed to come to terms on an extension at the start of spring training, it was reported earlier this week that Guerrero wanted $500 million in present day value, and that he and the team were about $50 million apart in talks. 

And, according to a new projection from The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required), there’s an avenue for the Blue Jays to sign Guerrero to an extension at a cost that works for them.

This projected contract for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be right where the Blue Jays want it

In his article, Britton made a contract projection for every big impending free agent using fWAR and age as the main considerations. And, in that article, he projected that Guerrero would get a 14-year, $450 million contract in free agency — which is right around the number that the Blue Jays are offering. 

The length of the contract should be a problem (Guerrero said in an interview with ESPN that he would sign a 20-year contract if needed), though it would water down the contract’s AAV. 

The only other position player mentioned in Britton’s article is Kyle Tucker, who was projected to sign an 11-year, $366 million contract. 

As of now, the most money ever given out to a first baseman is the eight-year, $248 million contract extension that Miguel Cabrera signed with the Tigers. 

Britton also brought up four other first baseman who signed other long-term extensions and how they produced afterward. The four first baseman mentioned are Albert Pujols (25.5 fWAR in the five years after his contract), Joey Votto (21.4 fWAR), Paul Goldschmidt (26.9 fWAR) and Mark Teixeira (24.9). 

Guerrero has a chance to best all of them thanks to his age (26), incredible power and ability to get the bat to the ball. 

If the Blue Jays want to contend in the American League East, they’ll need to spend money.

Who better to spend it on than a homegrown superstar?