Kevin Gausman’s struggles reinforce the need to trade for a starting pitcher

Kevin Gausman is enduring what is arguably his worst month as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. The veteran got shelled for six earned runs in Thursday night’s 6-5 loss to the Texas Rangers on the heels of lasting just two innings against the Chicago Cubs in his previous start. He’s allowed four or more earned runs in all but one of his five starts in June.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has already confirmed he will be shopping for a starting pitcher at the 2026 trade deadline, but Gausman’s recent struggles have further reinforced the importance of making a deal. 

What’s going on with Gausman right now?

Gausman has been a beacon of consistency since joining the Blue Jays on a five-year, $110 million deal ahead of the 2022 season. He’s recorded an ERA between 3.35 and 3.83 while making at least 31 starts in each of the last four seasons. He looked well on his way to another strong campaign before this recent five-start stretch ballooned his ERA to 4.36 across his 95 innings pitched. 

The most obvious cause for concern with Gausman is the long ball, as he’s already allowed 14 home runs. He gave up 21 over a career-high 193 innings last season, and just 20 the year before that. His 1.3 HR/9 would be his highest since 2019 if the season ended today.

A decline in velocity could be contributing to these home run woes and overall struggles. Gausman’s average fastball in 2026 is 93.8 mph, down from 94.5 mph a year ago. His splitter, meanwhile, has almost lost a full mile per hour compared to last season. He’s not overpowering hitters with his stuff nearly as much as he used to.

Fluctuating velocity is nothing new for Gausman, who has seemingly lost his velocity for a few starts on several occasions throughout his Blue Jays tenure. It’s no secret how much better he performs when he’s consistently hitting 95 mph on the radar gun. 

Fatigue is the simplest explanation for this decline. Gausman is 35, and threw 30.2 extra innings in the playoffs on top of everything he did during the regular season. He pitched more than he ever did in 2025, then had the shortest offseason of his career to recover.

The good news for Gausman and the Blue Jays is that his underlying metrics suggest he’s due for some positive regression. His expected ERA is 3.70, and he’s still getting hitters to chase an elite level. His 5.6% walk rate also still ranks in the 90th percentile. 

Still, even if this five-start stretch ultimately ends up being a blip during an otherwise solid season, the Blue Jays can’t ignore Gausman’s diminished velocity in the context of his workload. He’s thrown more innings than just about anybody over the past few years—they need to insulate themselves by adding another starting pitcher. 

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow