Kazuma Okamoto hasn’t been the player the Toronto Blue Jays expected

Predicting how Japanese baseball players will perform once they transition to MLB is nearly impossible. For every Yoshinobu Yamamoto who comes exactly as advertised, there are several stars who lose their lustre upon arriving in North America. 

The Toronto Blue Jays nonetheless felt good enough about Kazuma Okamoto to give him a four-year, $60-million contract this past offseason. He was one of Nippon Professional Baseball’s most accomplished players over the last decade with the Yomiuri Giants, and had proven himself against major league pitching in the World Baseball Classic. 

Most scouting reports projected Okamoto as a well-rounded hitter who would play questionable defence at third base—and they couldn’t have been more wrong. He’s instead been a boom-or-bust power threat with sure hands at the hot corner.

How were scouts and baseball media so wrong about Okamoto?

Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami were the two big Japanese free agents that teams were vying for during the offseason. They were supposedly very different. 

Murakami drew Kyle Schwarber comparisons as a fearsome slugger who walked and struck out a ton. His hype died down by the time he was posted, however, as MLB teams began to fear his lacklustre defence at first base and supposed inability to hit high-velocity fastballs. He settled for a two-year, $34-million contract with the Chicago White Sox that now looks like a bargain given how he’s already hit 20 home runs with a .938 OPS (159 OPS+) through his first 57 games. 

Despite his billing as a more refined hitter who would hit for more contact than Murakami, Okamoto has actually been quite similar. He has hit 15 home runs through his first 283 plate appearances while striking out 92 times—the definition of feast or famine. 

Okamoto’s power production is legitimate by every metric: he ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. He’s selling out for home runs with one of the highest pulled-air percentages in all of baseball. 

Even more surprising, however, has been Okamoto’s defence. Most metrics don’t love him, yet he has routinely passed the eye test and accrued two defensive runs saved. He’s unquestionably fared better than the baseball world expected he would. 

The real question, then, is whether this version of Okamoto is who the Blue Jays needed, or whether they would have been better off with the player they thought they were getting.

The Blue Jays certainly need Okamoto’s power in 2026 with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer underperforming. He leads the team in home runs by a wide margin; Ernie Clement, Jesús Sánchez, and Brandon Valenzuela are tied for second with seven each. It’s hard to imagine how much more punchless this offence would be without him. 

Okamoto does stick out like a sore thumb sometimes because of all the strikeouts, given how the rest of the lineup puts the ball in play. His inability to get the bat on the ball in some key spots has been frustrating and detrimental in its own right. 

Not to be overlooked either is Okamoto's chemistry with the team. He's been a hit with his teammates and quickly won over the fans with his endearing personality.

So, with all that said, Okamoto has undoubtedly been a net positive thus far between the home runs and his steady play at third base. He’s been worth his contract so far—he just hasn’t been earning his paycheck in the ways the Blue Jays expected he would.

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