José Soriano could follow Louis Varland’s path to a Blue Jays breakout in 2027

Louis Varland's breakout in 2026 showed how a refined pitch mix can transform a pitcher in the span of one year. After Varland pitched in 15 out of the Toronto Blue Jays' 18 postseason games in 2025, he entered the 2026 season as the top setup man for Jeff Hoffman.

After Hoffman struggled and was removed from the closer's role, Varland took the reigns and turned it into one of the best seasons by a relief pitcher in Blue Jays' history.

What changes did Varland make?

After the trade with the Minnesota Twins last season, Varland pitched to a 4.94 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 23 games with the Blue Jays. Those weren't the kind of numbers the Blue Jays wanted to get out of him. He initially leaned on his fastball and knuckle-curve combination, but it wasn't working.

So the Blue Jays and Varland made some tweaks to his changeup this season. He threw it 18% of the time which completely fooled hitters. Opponents had a .170 wOBA against the pitch, way down from the .375 wOBA mark from 2025. His fastball also improved with a .244 wOBA against that pitch in 2026 compared to a .329 wOBA in 2025.

Can José Soriano make similar adjustments?

While there were several pitchers who showed their potential in 2026, it would not be a complete surprise if José Soriano broke out in 2027 by following the Varland blue print of mixing his pitches and throwing the ones that are more effective more often.

Soriano is a hard-throwing righty who averages 96.6 mph on his fastball, good for 83rd percentile and he generates a lot of extension down the mound despite a 6-foot-3 frame.

Soriano is able to generate lots of groundballs, mostly off his splitter and sinker, posting a 53.8% groundball rate ranked in the 93rd percentile. His best pitches by run value were his curveball and splitter, as they had run values of 6 and 9, respectively. They were also his best pitches to get him swing and miss as the whiff rates on the pitches were 43.4% and 34.1%, respectively.

Changing José Soriano's pitch mix has breakout potential written all over it

What can he do better?

Soriano will need to rediscover his sinker in 2027. Despite throwing his sinker less in 2026, hitters were very successful against it. His .363 wOBA on the sinker is actually up from .357 in 2025. Hitters also had a .338 wOBA off his fastball in 2025 and it went up to .374 in 2026.

Soriano should look to ditch his fastball entirely as it has not been an effective pitch for him in his career. The run value on his fastball has ranged from 1 to -6. Hitters have had a lot of success against it as the lowest wOBA he has recorded on his fastball in his career is .338 (2025) and xwOBA .337 (2023).

One pitch that has not been mentioned with Soriano is his slider. He should continue to throw his slider more than 6% of the time, which is his career average. In 2026, he only threw his slider 4.8% of the time but it was effective with hitters posting a .192 wOBA against. It generated a solid whiff rate (30.8%) and was his second best pitch at getting strikeouts (32% strikeout rate).

If he can find the velocity he once had on his sinker to go with his great offspeed and breaking pitches, Soriano has the makings of being a breakout in 2027. He is also in the right organization when it comes to pitching development and with a full offseason under the Blue Jays' guise, there is a lot to be hopeful of from Soriano.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow