It sure sounds like the Blue Jays' offseason will be more expensive than it should be

As we wrap up November and roll into December in a couple of days, the Toronto Blue Jays haven't given their fans anything to get excited about, now almost one month into the offseason. Aside from being one of the five teams known to have made an initial offer to free agent Juan Soto, the biggest headlines for this front office have centered around the decision to non-tender fan favorite reliever Jordan Romano.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins, and by extension president Mark Shapiro, haven't provided much hope yet for "being competitive" in 2025, with a plethora of needs still unfulfilled. With Shapiro heading into the final year of his contract, you'd think he'll be instructing Atkins, who has two years remaining, to spend, spend, and then spend some more.

Although, with a payroll expected to be similar to 2024, it could be a lean offseason in terms of signing the biggest free agents.

The Blue Jays finished 2024 with a $217M payroll but were up around the luxury tax threshold of $237M at the trade deadline before cleaning house. With FanGraphs' Roster Resource showing an estimated 2025 payroll of $189M at this time (including estimated arbitration and pre-arbitration contracts), there's room to maneuver, but not much.

Blue Jays should be ready to overpay for free agents this offseason

Things might get sticky for Toronto this winter, especially after a recent report that makes it sound like they'll have to be prepared to overpay for free agents this winter, thanks to the pickle they've put themselves in.

The Blue Jays' two biggest stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, remain unsigned past the 2025 season. As USA Today's MLB insider Bob Nightengale wrote earlier this week, Toronto won't be an attractive destination for free agents looking for long-term deals with a competitive team and will pay dearly for it, literally.

"They will have no choice but to overpay free agents with players well aware that Guerrero and Bichette could be gone," Nightengale said. "This is why no one believes Soto is coming their way unless they dramatically outbid the Mets."

It doesn't sound like anyone is taking the Blue Jays seriously at this point. This is a mess created by not extending Guerrero well before what could be his final season in a Blue Jays uniform. Bichette would be a nice long-term pairing, but if you're only paying one, Vladdy is the obvious choice.

Either way, it feels like a matter of time before the dynamic duo who grew up in the Blue Jays system together will be split up. And other players and agents are aware of, and highly likely to be wary of, the team's murky future.

Even if, or rather when, they're forced to pivot to the next tier of free agents, like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander, Nightengale doesn't think the Blue Jays will get the same treatment as other clubs vying for their services.

"They will have to make easily the highest offer if they’re successful in landing in Burnes or Fried, along with outfielder Anthony Santander, whom they badly covet," Nightengale said.

Unfortunately, as Nightengale points out, making the highest bids might only result in helping drive up the price for competitors who end up with the players the Blue Jays are targeting.

This could be a messy and expensive — if they can successfully land big-name free agents — offseason for the Blue Jays.

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