Mark Shapiro’s media availability doesn’t answer any pressing Blue Jays questions

After months of silence, team president Mark Shapiro held a media availability on Wednesday afternoon with Blue Jays beat reporters. Fans can be forgiven for expecting more than just the empty platitudes and apology we heard from general manager Ross Atkins last week. Given this train wreck of a season, with the team in last place in the AL East and 11.0 games back in the Wild Card standings, some actual accountability from the senior leadership in the front office would be refreshing.

With the focus now squarely on Shapiro and how the front office plans to improve the talent level of this ball club to compete with the impressive young Orioles, vastly improved Red Sox, and always competitive Yankees and Rays in 2025, he had to walk a fine line.

But the message was largely unchanged, with corporate speak instead of accountability. On Ross Atkins’ status as general manager, Shapiro said he doesn’t comment on job status in-season, but that, “contextually, I'm a huge believer in stability and continuity, and those are competitive advantages in pro sports. Reacting and change don't necessarily mean improvement."

Of course, Blue Jays fans might be confused about the talk of ‘improvement’ given the 2024 edition of the team has regressed from a winning percentage of .568 in 2022 (92 wins), to .549 last season (89 wins), to .456 this year (on pace for only 74 wins). The farm system has ranked bottom third in baseball every year since 2022, which continues with the latest midseason ranking updates.

Shapiro’s last media availability was in spring training on March 21, ahead of what’s been a very disappointing year for Toronto baseball fans. Amidst questions about the Rogers Centre renovations and the ultimately unsuccessful pursuit of Shohei Ohtani at the time, Shapiro expressed optimism about the season ahead:

“[We believe] in the projections and the talent that we have in place… the fact that they’re entering the prime of their career — which means that their performances are going to be more reliable and dependable. We’ve got a strong core in place, so we doubled down in the belief of our players. That’s the bottom line.”

He tripled down on that optimism on Wednesday, saying, “We believe there's enough talent in place to build a contending championship caliber team next year. Had we not, we would have made a different set of decisions [at the Trade Deadline]". Translation: we believe in our core, and intend to build around that core to have a championship calibre roster in 2025.

What went wrong?

Obviously “reliable” performance hasn’t been the outcome for players like Bo Bichette (OPS+ 70), George Springer (92), Alejandro Kirk (88) or Daulton Varsho (91), and only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and rookie Spencer Horwitz have exceeded expectations offensively. Varsho has, of course, provided great value defensively, with a 2.1 dWAR, DRS of +22 and 15 outs above average (OAA).

The pitching staff has regressed badly, with the starters’ ERA rising over half a run per nine innings, from 3.85 last season (3rd lowest in baseball) to 4.36 this year (to rank 21st). The bullpen, which Shapiro referred to as “an Achilles for us all year”, has been even worse, with the relievers’ ERA jumping from 3.68 (8th) to 5.06 (29th). Overall, the team’s 4.63 ERA is almost a run higher than the 3.79 run mark they posted last year.

And much of that is on the pitchers, not the defence behind them: the pitching staff’s 4.61 FIP is over half a run higher than the 4.06 FIP recorded last season. Home runs are to blame, with Toronto pitchers giving up a league worst 158 dingers season-to-date, an average of 1.39 round trips allowed per game this year versus 1.22 last year.

Focus shifts to 2025

At his year-end press conference last October following the painful wild card exit, Shapiro said, “When we fall short of expectations, that responsibility and that accountability clearly lies with me. We've got work to do. That work is already underway.” 

In October, he’d also said that Atkins “needs to get better, but he's done a good job, and put us in good position [in 2024] to be a very good team. [He] certainly deserves that opportunity to continue to lead the baseball organization.”

Wednesday’s update? “I'm a huge believer in stability and continuity.”

In terms of long term contract extensions for Guerrero and Bichette, this past March Shapiro said, “We’ve got to keep those conversations private. Those are ongoing.” His update Wednesday on those conversations was that “it's certainly easier to build a sustainable championship team with talent like that in place for extended periods of time." He also said, “I would not characterize there being any large scale pullback on payroll.”

Per Shapiro, the Blue Jays are “very slightly” under the CBT penalty after the Trade Deadline. However, RosterResource now has Toronto’s CBT payroll at $241M, $4M above the 2024 luxury tax threshold of $237M. That has implications for next year; assuming they are a 2nd time payor this year and are above the threshold again next season, Toronto would pay a 50% tax on overages between $241~261M, and 62% above that up to ~$281M. In fact, Shapiro said avoiding financial penalties was “very secondary” for Toronto at the Trade Deadline, where their “primary concern and the relentless focus was infusing talent to our system.”

If they’re going to extend Guerrero, as well as sign some top free agents like Anthony Santander to extend the competitive window, that potential 50% luxury tax next year starts getting expensive, including draft pick compensation if they sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer (QO) after the season. Atkins said they were “on the razor’s edge” in terms of the tax.

Now nearing the end of their 9th season as team president and GM, respectively, Shapiro and Atkins continue to leave Blue Jays fans wondering where the accountability lies for the fact that Toronto has zero playoff game wins in the ‘Bo and Vlad’ era, the farm system has been ranked bottom 3rd since the start of the 2022 season, including 22nd in the 2024 midseason update from ESPN (up only two spots from 24th preseason, despite adding 8 new prospects to their top 30 at the Trade Deadline), and not a single 1st or 2nd round draft pick made by this front office is on the 26-man roster. In fact, 2023 1st rounder Arjun Nimmala is the only first round pick currently active in the organisation.

The fact that Bichette and Guerrero could just walk as free agents after next season has fans staring into the abyss of another painful rebuild, without waves of talent on the farm ready to replace them. ESPN ranked the Baltimore Orioles farm system No. 1 in their updated midseason rankings. Tampa Bay was No. 2, Boston was No. 10 and the Yankees were No. 14, so a 22nd ranked Blue Jays farm system isn’t likely to bridge that talent gap with their AL East peers. It will all be up to key free agent signings and impactful trades if this team is going to extend their competitive window through 2025. Translation: there is a lot of work ahead.