How Gerrit Cole’s injury could help the Blue Jays overtake the Yankees

On Monday, the Yankees experienced every team’s worst nightmare when it was announced that ace pitcher Gerrit Cole would undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of the 2025 season. 

The Blue Jays have a chance to turn New York’s nightmare into their dream. 

The Yankees are the gold standard for American League East (and all of baseball) but this year’s team is built on a house of cards that’s already beginning to tumble.

Why the Blue Jays could top the Yankees this year 

Along with Cole’s injury, the Yankees will also be without Luis Gil for at least three months due to a lat strain. 

Coming into the season, New York’s rotation looked like one of the team’s strengths. It took a three-day span for that to turn into a weakness.

Sure, the Yankees signed Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million deal in the offseason (the largest contract ever for a left-handed pitcher), but he’s coming off a season where he had a career-high 3.25 ERA. He also missed a good chunk of 2023 due to a forearm strain. 

Carlos Rodón’s good, but it’s not like he’s made of titanium. The same can be said for Marcus Stroman, who was late to camp because he didn't want to pitch out of the bullpen.

Now he and the Yankees won’t have a choice. 

Those injuries have already impacted how certain projection systems view the division, as the Blue Jays have leapfrogged the Yankees in Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections. The Blue Jays are projected to win 85.4 games, while New York is projected to win 85.0 games. 

A slim margin, but it doesn’t change the projections look a lot different than they did a week ago.

Toronto’s rotation looks even stronger in the wake of Cole’s injury

The Blue Jays’ rotation is deep and filled with veteran pitchers, which is the exact opposite of how New York’s rotation looks like now. 

After Fried, Rodón and Stroman, the Yankees will likely have Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren round out the final two spots in the rotation. They both could have fine MLB careers ahead of them (Schmidt pitched well last year), but neither of them are at the level Cole is. 

By contrast, the Blue Jays will likely break camp with a rotation of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Bowden Francis. 

While there's not a Cole-type pitcher in there, they’re all solid pitchers with no glaring red flags. 

There’s always the chance the Yankees go out and trade for Miami’s Sandy Alcántara or San Diego’s Dylan Cease, but it would only be logical to imagine that both of their price tags have gone up in the wake of Cole’s injury. 

It’s not like things are better in free agency considering Kyle Gibson, Patrick Corbin, Spencer Turnbull and Lance Lynn are the top options. Would either of them move the needle against Toronto’s rotation? 

And that’s not where the bad news stops for the Yankees. Yes, they still have Aaron Judge, but they could be without Giancarlo Stanton for most of the year due to shoulder injuries. 

New York will still have a solid lineup behind Judge thanks to the presence of Anthony Volpe, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt, but it looks a little less intimidating thanks to the Stanton-sized hole in the middle. 

And while the Blue Jays’ lineup isn’t complete, a majority of players are swinging the bat well this spring. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had good at-bats. Bo Bichette is hitting home runs out of parks. Anthony Santander's finding his footing after a late start to spring. 

There’s no denying it was a frustrating offseason for Blue Jays’ fans. But that could all end up in the rearview mirror if the Blue Jays' start winning.