How do the Blue Jays surpass their PECOTA projected win total?

Every year just before spring training, Baseball Prospectus releases their PECOTA standings projections which simulate an estimated range of games a team could win and gives us the average of that range.

This year’s projections have been released and there are some interesting results, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers having a near 100% chance to make the postseason.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a simulated record of 85.1 wins and 76.9 losses, which puts them at third in the AL East and seventh in the American League. Per the projections, they'd just miss out on the postseason.

However, PECOTA's projections aren't perfect. Last year's projections had the St. Louis Cardinals winning the National League Central (they didn’t), and gave the Detroit Tigers a minuscule chance to make the playoffs (they did).

How do the Blue Jays surpass their projected win total?

For the Blue Jays, 85.1 wins represents an 11-win increase from their 74-88 finish in 2024. But the goal for the Blue Jays this year isn’t just to be better than last year: it's to make the postseason. So how does the team rise above those projections? The best way for them to do that is pitch better.

PECOTA projects the Blue Jays to have one of the best offenses in the league: their 744 estimated runs scored is the the second-most in the American League and the most in the AL East.

But on the other side, the Blue Jays are projected to give up 699 runs, which is the second-most in the American League East. It's the same number the Houston Astros are projected to give up, but the Astros are projected to score 752 runs, which gives them a +53-run differential compared to the Blue Jays' +45.

Those eight extra runs by the Astros give them just over one more projected win than Toronto, which, according to PECOTA, is good enough for a postseason spot.

FanGraphs' projections tell a similar story, as their model also has the Blue Jays offense being better than its defense. They have the Blue Jays' lineup accumulating 30.6 fWAR and their pitching staff to accumulate 13.9 fWAR.

The concern with those numbers is that the Blue Jays have spent a good deal this offseason working on the bullpen, which was the weakest part of the team last year.

The additions of Jeff Hoffman, Nick Sandlin, and Yimi Garcia were considered wins, as was their decision to sign future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer in an attempt to bolster the rotation. But neither PECOTA nor FanGraphs thinks its going to be good enough to make the postseason

It shouldn't be lost on Blue Jays fans that the front office has spent the last few years trying to build a team that's better at defense and run prevention, yet the top two MLB projection models don't think that's going to be enough.

For the Blue Jays to surpass their 85.1 win projection, they’ll need a few unexpected and pleasant surprises from the pitching staff.