Blue Jays fans just got a harsh Daulton Varsho reminder ahead of non-tender deadline

As the Toronto Blue Jays continue to be linked to a big named free agent outfielder this offseason, they'll also have to keep in mind the impending salary raise of an incumbent outfielder. Daulton Varsho is arbitration eligible and after making just over $8 million in 2025, his salary is expected to increase by a modest amount in 2026, likely around $9.7 million according to MLB Trade Rumours.

What the Blue Jays will have to weigh is whether or not they feel Varsho is worth that increase, if they think it will eat into the money they have set aside for that potential free agent contract.

Blue Jays fans just got a harsh Daulton Varsho reminder ahead of non-tender deadline

The Blue Jays have been named as one of the main suitors for Kyle Tucker. The 28-year-old is widely considered the number one free agent available and Toronto would love to employ him for what he is able to bring on both sides of the ball. However, he is going to command a massive contract, likely north of $300 million over at least 10 years, while some think he could even fetch $400 million.

While that feels like peanuts compared to Varsho, who's arbitration case could take him into the $9 million range, what the Blue Jays have to weigh is whether they would want to extend Varsho longer term in case they don't sign Tucker. Grading what Varsho is worth long term is a tricky exercise.

Varsho has played six seasons in the majors, with his first three in Arizona. While with the Diamondbacks he showed true power potential, hitting 27 home runs in 2022, but was never a big contact guy. His defensive skills and power potential, outweighed his lack of ability to make consistent solid contact and the Blue Jays jumped on the opportunity to bring him to Toronto, in an offseason trade going into 2023.

Varsho has pretty much stayed as the same kind of player during his tenure with the Blue Jays. The defence has been exceptional, evidenced by his Gold Glove award in 2024. But the bat has left something more to be desired. He's hit a combined .221/.288/.428 with a .716 OPS. While he does get his hits from time to time (273 in 365 games) there is a little more desire for a little more consistency.

Varsho also has had some streaks where it looks like he has the capability of surpassing the 30-home run plateau, unfortunately he has topped out at 20 in two of the three years with the Blue Jays. Although, another way to look at it, is that he only played in 71 games this past season due to injuries and still hit 20 home runs. He had the best home run/at-bat rate on the team at 12.40. That's the kind of power production you can dream on and that's what puts the Blue Jays in a bit of a bind.

For one more year at potentially less than $10 million, the Blue Jays would gladly take a full season of Varsho who is projected by FanGraphs to hit 26 home runs, while providing elite level defence. But beyond 2026, if they don't sign Tucker or another free agent outfielder like Cody Bellinger, the reality of signing Varsho long term becomes a tricky experiment in trying to determine his true value.