Former Blue Jays star Alek Manoah’s stunning decline needs to be studied

The downfall of former Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Alek Manoah truly must be studied. 

Few players in MLB history have experienced the highs and lows that he has during his professional baseball career. He’s gone from looking like a budding star to being non-tendered in the span of just a few years—how did this happen?  

The Blue Jays selected Manoah 11th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft out of West Virginia University. He debuted two years later in 2021, throwing six shutout innings against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. 

His excellent first start was a sign of things to come as he finished his rookie season with a 3.32 ERA and 10.2 K/9 across 20 starts. He was eighth in American League Rookie of the Year voting. 

Manoah built on this impressive showing with an even better campaign in 2022, recording a 2.24 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while throwing 196.2 innings. He was named an All-Star, finished third in the AL Cy Young race, and received down-ballot MVP votes as the Blue Jays made the postseason.

Little did anybody know those playoffs would be the beginning of the end for Manoah. The right-hander got rocked for four runs—three in the first inning—in the first and only postseason start of his career against the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card series. This dud coming right after he delivered an all-time bad quote certainly didn't help.

Manoah’s ERA ballooned to 5.87 in 2023, a season during which he was optioned to Florida Complex League amid a stretch of unfathomably poor results. He briefly worked his way back to the Blue Jays, but was then optioned to Triple-A Buffalo in August. He finished the year there on the temporary inactive list after experiencing some mysterious medical issues.

Manoah started 2024 on the injured list, then returned for five starts before suffering a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays designated him for assignment in September of 2025, cutting their losses amid their playoff push.

The Los Angeles Angels signed Manoah to a one-year, $1.95 million prove-it deal this past offseason that hasn't gone well. He started the year on the injured list, then made his season debut against the Blue Jays in Toronto on May 8th with a scoreless inning of relief.

Manoah almost had a career renaissance after his outing against the Blue Jays...almost

He followed that up with five shutout frames against the Cleveland Guardians on May 11th. The good times stopped there, however, as the Los Angeles Dodgers lit him up for nine runs in just 1.1 innings the next time he took the mound. He was promptly optioned to Triple-A afterwards.

Manoah's results have been disastrous since his demotion. He's recorded a 15.80 ERA and 2.93 WHIP across his nine starts, allowing 10 home runs and walking 36 batters. 

His days in professional baseball could be numbered despite being just four years removed from a top-three Cy Young finish with the Blue Jays. His fall-off is unlike any in recent baseball history and remains without a clear explanation. 

Did that rocky playoff outing shatter his confidence beyond repair? Did his body and mechanics break down under the added stress of the pitch clock? Did the league figure him out? Did his ego get the best of him? Perhaps it was some combination of everything?  

All that can be said for sure is that Manoah could have been so much more. His Blue Jays tenure probably should have gone differently. But it didn’t. The rest is, as they say, history. 

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