Blue Jays will have to work harder than most to convince Emilio Pagán to sign in Toronto

If there's one part of the Toronto Blue Jays' roster that is more solidified than any others, it's the bullpen. Each of their five-most used relievers from 2026 are returning next year, keeping the core of a group that ranked 10th in relief pitcher fWAR intact.

Still, it's never a bad idea to double down on your strengths. Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers may be one of the best late-game tandems in the league, but it's simply impossible to have too many good bullpen options nowadays. Just look at what the Milwaukee Brewers accomplished this year, riding their three-headed monster of Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill to a title.

That's why Blue Jays fans should be watching Emilio Pagán's free-agent stock with vested interest. The former Reds closer declined his $10 million option for 2027 after a scorching hot second half, and he'd give manager John Schneider yet another weapon to deploy in high-leverage situations.

Emilio Pagán is the right player for the Blue Jays, but they may not be the right team for him

Even though Pagán is 35, he's in the midst of the best stretch of his career right now. Over the past two years in Cincinnati, he's locked down 57 saves in 115 games, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and 3.2 bWAR in that time. He's done all that despite a hamstring injury that crushed his first-half numbers in 2026 (6.06 ERA). However, he made up for that stumble with a ridiculous performance after the All-Star break (1.71 ERA, .189 batting average allowed, 28.7% strikeout rate).

MLB Trade Rumors projects he'll earn an eminently affordable two-year, $20 million contract in free agency, citing his age as one reason why his market might not develop in the same way it does for other elite closers. At that price, that's a deal the Blue Jays have to get done, so long as they can look past his extreme fly-ball tendencies.

The problem isn't so much the player or the price, but rather the fit. Pagán ranks tied for eighth in saves over the past two years; there's no reason for him to accept a lesser role unless he wants one. Some team will happily insert him into the ninth inning next year. That team just won't be the Blue Jays.

Louis Varland has reached untouchable status thanks to his heroic 35-save performance this season, one which should earn him the AL's Reliever of the Year award. And even if something were to happen to him, Tyler Rogers (who has 23 career saves) is next in line for closer duties.

Would Pagán be willing to accept a set-up man role with a contender this offseason? The answer to that question will determine whether or not he's a candidate to end up in Toronto.

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