Blue Jays rotation projected to be the second best in the AL East

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays weren't even expected to make the playoffs, and they got to within two outs of a World Series championship. So take the projections with a grain of salt, because nobody truly knows how the season is going to turn out.

But before we get to the actual games we get to take a look at the numbers of what FanGraphs and other sites believes will transpire. For Blue Jays fans, they might find it surprising to see exactly what Steamer projects will transpire within the AL East, and specifically with the pitching rotations.

Blue Jays rotation projected to be the second best in the AL East

The Blue Jays and their division rivals, the Boston Red Sox have already made some significant additions to their starting rotation this offseason, while the New York Yankees have stood pat thus far.
But the Yankees will also be getting Gerrit Cole back at some point next year and that could play a big factor in their overall fortunes for the season. As it currently stands though, the Red Sox are projected by Steamer fWAR to have the best rotation in the ultra competitive AL East.

Boston's pitching rotation consists of Garrett Crochet, who finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting this past season along with newcomer Sonny Gray, whom the Red Sox just traded for in a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. It's rounded out by rookie Connelly Early, Brayan Bello and Patrick Sandoval. That group is projected to lead the division with an fWAR of 14.3

Crochet, led the team among qualified starters with an 11.18 K/9 and had an ERA of 2.59, with 255 strikeouts in 205.1innings pitched. He is clearly a top of the rotation ace and will once again be asked to lead a group that has some solid upside that the steamers projects clearly like. Gray had 201 strikeouts in 180.2 innings pitched for the Cardinals, with a 4.28 ERA. He's expected to replace the production lost from Lucas Giolito heading to free agency. Giolito pitched to a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings and had 121 strikeouts.

Bello also had a solid season, he threw 166.2 innings in 29 games, finishing with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.236 WHIP and he's projected to do basically the same again. That's a solid top three if they Red Sox do get that kind of prodcution out of them, but there are question marks behind them. Connelly Early pitched in four games, and accumulated a 2.33 ERA in 19.1 innings pitched in the regular season after getting the call up to the majors.

Meanwhile, Sandoval missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from UCL surgery and is expected to be good to go in 2026. However, he's coming off two down years with the LA Angels in his last two seasons, pitching to a 4.45 ERA over 44 starts with 109 walks in 224.1 innings pitched.

The Blue Jays have made the biggest free agent splash this offseason so far, adding Dylan Cease to the roster on a seven-year, $210 million contract. Steamer projects Cease to be worth 3.8 fWAR this year. While Kevin Gausman (2.8), Shane Bieber (2.6) Trey Yesavage (2.0) and José Berrios (1.5) make up the rest of the rotaion. Together Steamer projects them to be worth 12.7 fWAR, a couple of points behind the Red Sox.

But the Blue Jays and Red Sox are building their rotations to be very similar to each other in terms of personel. They both have the stud veteran arms in Crochet, Gray and Bello reflecting Gausman, Cease and Bieber. They are both relying on a rookie arm to make good on their impressive debuts in Early and Yesavage. And they are both relying on a bounce back season from a pitcher who was injured at the end of the year in Sandoval and Berrios.

What's interesting about the Blue Jays side of the projections is that steamer see's Gausman regressing from a 4.1 fWAR season in 2025, to 2.8 in 2026, while Cease will slightly improve from a 3.4 mark to a 3.8. Bieber's last fully healthy season was in 2023 and at 28-years-old he pitched to a 2.1 fWAR in 21 games. If Bieber is fully healthy in 2026, he'll likely be able to top 21 starts and could surpass those expectations. Meantime Berrios could be as much of a wild card as Yesavage is based on how their respective seasons ended.

The Yankees on the other hand are projected for an 11.0 fWAR led by Max Fried (3.6), Carlos Rodon (2.2), Gerrit Cole (2.0), Cam Schlittler (1.8) and Will Warren (1.4). But these projections feel somewhat premature for the Yankees who will likely be looking to make an upgrade with what's available on the market.

At the very least for Blue Jays fans, it's encouraging to see that they are doing what they can to keep pace with what the rest of the division is doing, and some would even say they are setting the pace with the moves they have already made this offseason.