Blue Jays' playoff push, trade deadline strategy, may hinge on this big question

The Toronto Blue Jays are hovering around the .500 mark (29-31 going into Jun. 1). It's not a bad place to be, but it's not ideal either. Many fans will remember that the Blue Jays were still one game below .500 in 2015 before their previous general manager Alex Anthopoulos went on a spending spree and dealt out a bunch of prospects to acquire David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere, Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins. They made it to the ALCS that year before losing to the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals.

So while the record right now won't truly dictate the direction the Blue Jays take around the Aug. 3 trade deadline, we could get a better sense if the Blue Jays could answer this one big question: Can the Blue Jays’ offense turn things around?

It was one of the 10 big questions heading into the trade deadline that was posed on MLB.com and writer Mark Feinsand says that it could all come down to how well Vladimir Guerrero Jr. performs over the next few weeks.

Vladdy's performance could shape the Blue Jays trade deadline strategy

Fiensand says, "The offense, on the other hand, has been uninspiring. The defending AL champs rank 11th in runs scored and 13th in OPS, with only one hitter (Kazuma Okamoto) hitting more than six home runs. Guerrero is hitting .298 with a .392 on-base percentage, but the slugger hit only three home runs in his first 58 games, looking nothing like his usual imposing self.

Can the Blue Jays’ offense turn things around? Toronto’s run to the World Series last fall created big expectations for 2026, and despite the injuries and slow start, the Blue Jays are in position to make the playoffs. Will general manager Ross Atkins make a splash at the Deadline to increase those chances?"

Guerrero's performance has been well below the expectations that many fans expected, especially coming off an epic postseason in which he hit 8 home runs in 18 games and batted .397/.494/.792 with an insane 241 wRC+. While nobody thought that those numbers could be replicable over the course of a full season, it's shocking to see the power numbers come crashing down this hard.

Again, Guerrero's underlying numbers are still good. He's walking more than he's striking out with a 12.2 BB% and 10.2 K%. But his Iso is an anemic .087, down from .175 from the year before and .221 in 2024. He's producing a 120 wRC+ and has been worth 5.4 offensive fWAR, but a staggering 80.6% of his total hit production has been singles, with just nine doubles and three home runs out of the 62 hits he's collected.

Last year, the Blue Jays acquired Ty France in the Louis Varland deal as a player who could back up Guerrero when needed. This year, Atkins could be looking for a hitter that can add more thump to the lineup, which is emboldended by the fact that Guerrero has yet to be the Vladdy he's expected to be.

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