Blue Jays’ offseason pass on Ty France looks worse as trade deadline value rises for Padres

When the Toronto Blue Jays let Ty France hit the open market last offseason, it hardly felt like a franchise-altering decision. France had been a useful depth piece during his brief stint in Toronto, but with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base and the Blue Jays needing to address bigger roster concerns, the fit was always going to be complicated.

A few months later, that decision looks a lot harder to defend. France has been one of the best under-the-radar signings in baseball in 2026, landing with the San Diego Padres on a Minor League deal that is paying him just $1.35 million. The 32-year-old has 16 home runs, 43 RBIs and an .877 OPS in 74 games this season, while ranking in the 94th percentile with six outs above average. MLB.com writer Mark Feinsand recently looked at the best player at every position who could be available at the trade deadline, and he pegged France as the top player at first base.

The irony for the Blue Jays is difficult to ignore. France is outperforming incumbent first baseman Guerrero in several key areas while making a fraction of his salary. France is earning $1.35 million this season, while Guerrero is making $35.71 million, in the first year of his mega, 14-year, $500-million extension. Nobody is suggesting France would have replaced Guerrero as Toronto’s everyday first baseman, but the value gap makes the Blue Jays’ decision to move on look worse by the week.

Feinsand adds that France’s “Buzz Factor” is currently medium. That is because, despite hovering below .500, the Padres remain close enough to the final National League Wild Card spot to make selling a complicated decision. Four teams stand between San Diego and that spot, however, and FanGraphs has listed the club’s playoff odds at 11.4 percent. If president of baseball operations A.J. Preller decides to sell to any extent, France would be a prime candidate to be dealt given the lack of solid first-base options on the market.

France's big season could net the Padres a big haul at the deadline

Other options, according to Jeff Passan at ESPN, could include Willson Contreras, although the Boston Red Sox have stormed back into the race and may be less motivated to move him. The same uncertainty applies to Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker of the Houston Astros, whose playoff chances have improved lately but still leave them teetering between buying and selling. Josh Bell could become a candidate if the Minnesota Twins fall any further back, while Nathaniel Lowe of the Cincinnati Reds is another possible option with free agency looming this offseason and the Reds the farthest back of any of the teams currently mentioned.

That means France could be worth a nice prospect or two at the deadline, which only adds to the sting for Toronto. At the time, it felt like France might have been in tough to find consistent playing time with the Blue Jays. Looking at their Opening Day roster, the Blue Jays were carrying George Springer as their primary DH, while also electing to bring right-handed hitter Davis Schneider north out of camp.

As it turns out, he has become exactly the kind of bat they could have used: an affordable, right-handed power hitter capable of helping balance a lineup that has produced some of the worst offensive stats all season. Especially from the right side of the plate, the Blue Jays have produced a -25.1 offensive fWAR, hitting a combined .240/.307/.378 with a 92 wRC+.

By fWAR, France has been one of the more productive first basemen in MLB this season. The issue the Padres may find is that there are not a ton of playoff teams that desperately need an upgrade at first base. Still, teams such as the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers have received negative offensive value from their right-handed hitters. In fact, the Braves, Dodgers and Phillies all sit in the bottom half of the league in power production from the right side.

Those teams would probably love to add France’s home run pop and slugging ability for the stretch run. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are left watching a player they had in the building turn himself into both a trade chip and a reminder of an offseason miss that looks more and more costly with every game that passes when the Blue Jays could have used a timely hit or home run. France is hitting .290 with a 141 wRC+ and .905 OPS with men in scoring position.

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