Blue Jays’ offseason moves not enough to boost projected playoff chances

With spring training looming, FanGraphs has released its projections for the 2025 postseason. And, unfortunately for the Toronto Blue Jays, it doesn't appear as if their offseason moves have done enough to warrant a favorable outlook this year.

So, if you believe that Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has done enough to move the needle in the American League East, you might want to look away.

If you need a refresher on Atkins' offseason accomplishments, the Blue Jays added Gold Glove second baseman Andrés Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin in trade with the Cleveland Guardians, signed former Blue Jays draft pick Jeff Hoffman to handle ninth-inning duties and added slugging outfielder Anthony Santander to the middle of the lineup.

They even convinced future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to join the rotation.

While those moves mean the Blue Jays should improve on their 74 win campaign last year, their chances of making the playoffs aren't great. At least, that's what FanGraphs' 20,000 simulations project.

FanGraphs calculates the odds of outcomes for each team for the year, from win-loss projections to the probability of winning the division, clinching a bye or Wild Card berth, to making the playoffs or winning the World Series. So let's get into it.

What do FanGraphs' playoff odds say about the Blue Jays' chances this season?

According to FanGraphs, the AL East will be a winning division, with all five teams projected to finish above .500. The bad news is that the Blue Jays are at the bottom of those projections with 81.6 wins and 80.4 losses for an uninspiring .504 winning percentage.

The New York Yankees are in the top spot at 87.3-74.7, with a 39.7 percent chance of winning the division, while the Jays are given an 11.7 percent shot at the AL East title.

Here's FanGraphs' projected AL East standings:

In terms of making the playoffs, the Blue Jays' playoff odds sit at 37.6 percent — the fifth-lowest in the American League. They're given a 25.8 percent chance to grab one of the three Wild Cards and an 8.8 percent chance to secure the top spot in the AL and earn a bye through the Wild Card round. And, unfortunately, they have just a 2.1 percent chance of winning the World Series.

Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest probability of winning the World Series at 23.7 percent, followed by the Atlanta Braves, Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies.

While it doesn't seem like the odds are in Toronto's favor, we're still more than a month away from the start of meaningful games, and anything can happen over the six-month marathon that is the MLB season.

These projections have some predictive value, but players and teams outperform and underperform their expectations every season.

So, while FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays to improve on the 74-88 record from last year, they don't think that seven more wins will be enough to have postseason baseball in Toronto in 2025. They're going to have to win a few more to make some noise in the AL East.