Will Blue Jays need to be over-the-top aggressive on spending this offseason?

At his season ending media availability on October 2, Toronto Blue Jays team president and CEO Mark Shapiro was asked what his expectation was for the team’s 2025 payroll:

“[Payroll’s] not going to limit anybody [GM Ross Atkins] pursues in the offseason — anybody. So there's always some flexibility within that number. I don't see it dramatically different next year… I don't see it either growing or decreasing in a big way.”

We’ve already heard rumours that the Blue Jays are preparing “an astronomical offer” for soon-to-be 26-year-old superstar Juan Soto, who will be a free agent next month. That contract will be north of $500M. Maybe that’s the “anybody” mentioned by Shapiro above?

Homegrown, 25-year-old superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a free agent after next season, and if the Blue Jays truly intend to extend him long-term, that contract will be north of $300M.

That’s before any potential extension for Bo Bichette, who will also be in his last season of team control in 2025, or any free agent spending to bring in another power bat, starting pitching depth, or to completely revamp the bullpen after it was an Achilles’ heel yet again this season.

In other words, the numbers add up quickly. But with a 2024 payroll of $217M per RosterResource, the Blue Jays are actually well below three of the four teams that have advanced to their respective 2024 League Championship Series. Only Cleveland spent less than Toronto of the final four teams.

Modelling a $300M+ payroll?

So can fans dream that Shapiro was prophetic when he said payroll not going to limit anybody the Blue Jays’ front office decides to pursue this offseason? Or will it not be growing or decreasing in a big way?

Obviously we’ll have to wait and see what happens after the World Series, with Shapiro promising more details around MLB’s Winter Meetings in Dallas from December 9–12, and at the GM Meetings.

Another key date will be November 22, which is the last day for teams to offer 2025 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters, which for Toronto includes relievers Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Génesis Cabrera, Zach Pop and Dillon Tate, who are projected to earn a combined $16M+ in arbitration. All could be non-tendered, i.e. not offered a contract for next year, which would immediately make them free agents.

Looking at potential ways to increase the payroll to $300M plus next year, a $50M+ AAV for Soto is a good start. Guerrero is already projected to earn $30M in his final season of arbitration, so a long term contract extension at an AAV of $32M ~ $35M would imply a $12M ~ $15M annual increase from the $19.9M he earned in 2024.

Adding two power bats out of Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman and Pete Alsonso instead of Soto would also likely add up to $50M AAV.

That would already take the Blue Jays 2025 competitive balance (“luxury”) tax payroll up to $250M assuming they don’t non-tender Romano, Swanson and others; and, that’s before adding any MLB starting pitching depth to replace the traded Yusei Kikuchi and Alex Manoah, who is rehabbing from his UCL surgery in June. Or before adding any new shut down, high leverage arms to rebuild the bullpen.

Looking at the list of free agent relievers who will be available in free agency, there is a deep pool of the type of arms needed to return the Blue Jays to a Championship calibre level again next year, including Tanner Scott (30 years old, 4.5 WAR in 2024), Jeff Hoffman (32, 3.6), Aroldis Chapman (37, 2.9), Clay Holmes (32, 2.8), Kenley Jansen (37, 2.5), Chris Martin (39, 2.4) and Carlos Estévez (32, 2.1).

Signing four of those pitchers above could easily cost upwards of $50M, but they would immediately replace the dumpster fire names that populated the Blue Jays bullpen this past September, like Brett de Geus, Luis Frías, Easton Lucas, Yerry Rodríguez and José Cuas, whose claim to fame is that he is the first pitcher since 1901 to record two hit by pitches on three pitches thrown in a single outing.

As the Yankees are again proving this year, a lock down bullpen matters in postseason baseball. The Blue Jays front office has chronically undervalued the importance of high leverage relief pitching. They have not shown any apparent ability to learn from their mistakes and get better when it comes to relief pitching.

Recall it was a bad bullpen that hurt the Blue Jays in 2021, when the bullpen blew 9 saves and lost 14 games in May and June that year. Despite two MVP finalists and the AL Cy Young winner, that team finished in 4th place in the AL East and out of the playoffs.

The 2022 team was swept out of the AL Wild Card series at home in one of the worst playoff collapses in MLB history. After leading 8-1 through five innings on the back of a pair of home runs from Hernández, the Blue Jays bullpen blew a seven-run lead.

In 2024, the Blue Jays bullpen posted a league worst fWAR of -2.6, which means they were actually worse than their potential replacements. Their 4.82 ERA bettered only the Colorado Rockies, who played half of their games a mile high.

If they plan to field a competitive team in 2025, spending on shut down relievers will be a key priority. So taking the potential $250M payroll above and adding $50M more for a rebuilt bullpen gets them to $300M before adding a catcher to replace Danny Jansen, and MLB starting pitching depth to replace Kikuchi and Manoah in 2025. Bichette’s contract situation only adds to the intrigue.

Rogers Communications, who recently signed an agreement to buy Bell’s 37.5% ownership stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) for C$4.7 billion, can clearly afford a $300M+ payroll. With the luxury tax threshold rising to $241M next year, spending over $300M would also potentially trigger a 20% ~ 50% tax on any overages above the threshold, depending on whether or not Toronto triggered the luxury tax as a second time payor again in 2024.

They were apparently right “on the razor’s edge” of paying luxury taxes again in 2024 according to Atkins after the Trade Deadline in July. There is also a 60% tax surcharge on overages if the CBT payroll exceeds $301M next year. That means the Blue Jays will have to bark with the big dogs and potentially trigger a large luxury tax bill to add Soto, extend Vlad, add starting pitching depth, and rebuild the bullpen.

There are clear blueprints for the Blue Jays’ front office to follow. For example, Kansas City committed to between $62M and $105M (including options) in payroll by adding seven free agents last offseason, including postseason starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. They went from 56 wins in 2023 to 86 wins this year, making it to the ALDS. They also signed their young superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $289M extension to give their fans a player to get invested in long term.

So Blue Jays fans, the time to either “pursue anybody” this offseason or to get off the porch has arrived. It’s should be an interesting fork in the road to fielding a better team for 2025.