Blue Jays face season-defining test after climbing back into playoff picture

“Don’t sleep on the Blue Jays just yet.” A very accurate description from the Apple TV broadcast after Toronto’s 3-1 win over the New York Yankees on Friday night (Aug. 14).

In 22 games since July 22, the Toronto Blue Jays are 14-8. That July 23 win over the Tampa Bay Rays has become a clear dividing line in their season: before it, Toronto looked like a team drifting toward the trade deadline with its year slipping away; since then, the Blue Jays have played some of their best baseball of the season. Their 14-8 record is the fourth best mark in the majors in that span with only the San Diego Padres (16-5), Tampa Bay Rays (15-5) and Chicago Cubs (15-6) posting more wins. They have outscored their opponents 83-69 over that frame.

Their hitting still leaves a bit to be desired, with a team slash line of .248/.308/.361 and a wRC+ of 89. However, that only makes the turnaround more interesting. This hasn’t been a case of the offense suddenly carrying them for three weeks. Instead, Toronto’s resurgence has been built largely on run prevention, with the defense worth 4.4 defensive fWAR (second in the league), while their pitching as a whole has been worth 2.4 fWAR.

A 22 game sample isn’t a lot to go on, but it’s arguably their best 22 game stretch of the season and it has catapulted them to a  60-64 record and put them one game back of the third Wild Card spot. The significance of that date is that the Blue Jays had lost four in a row in the days preceding that Wednesday afternoon loss (4-2) to the Rays at home. They had dropped the finale of their series to the Chicago White Sox, followed by losing the first three games to the Rays. They pulled out a win in the finale to avoid the four game sweep at Rogers Centre, beating Tampa Bay 3-1 on July 23, and they haven’t lost back-to-back games since that time.

They were ten games under .500 entering that contest against the Rays, with 11 days to go until the trade deadline. That could’ve easily been the end of their season. But with a last gasp from last year’s American League Champions, they made a push in those final days to give the front office a glimpse of what the team could be.  Even though a couple of key pieces from that team still ended up being dealt at the deadline (Kevin Guasman, Daulton Varsho, Jeff Hoffman), there is some new life being brought into that clubhouse on a daily basis and their latest win over the Yankees is further proof of that.

That might be the most surprising part of this entire run. The Blue Jays looked like a team clearly ready to sell at the deadline, moving veteran pieces and expiring contracts. But instead of folding, the front office made some additions along with those subtractions, and, they’ve found enough stability — particularly defensively and on the mound — to keep themselves relevant.

Blue Jays' surge has been a lot of fun to watch, but there are reasons to think it could be a mirage

While there are several reasons to continue to be optimistic about the Blue Jays’ chances this season, there are just as many to be trepidatious. The pitching staff continues to take it’s lumps. Two of the pitchers the Blue Jays acquired at the deadline are hurt, with Jameson Taillon and Spencer Arrighetti currently on the Injured List.

The offense is still sometimes just scraping by. In the month of August they’ve scored four runs or less in seven of the 14 games they’ve played. Miraculously, they’ve also won three of those games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn’t hit a home run at Rogers Centre this year and he was removed from the game on Friday night after taking a knee to the head from Yankees third baseman George Lombard Jr. He was expected to undergo concussion testing after the game.

And as close as the Blue Jays are to that final Wild Card spot, there are still three teams ahead of them. Entering Saturday’s action, the Detroit Tigers (60-62) hold that spot, while the Minnesota Twins (60-63) and Texas Rangers (60-63) are also ahead of Toronto.

That is what makes this race so unpredictable. The Blue Jays are close enough that one strong weekend can change the entire picture, but they are also buried in a cluster of teams with little separation between them. There is opportunity there, but there is also almost no room for the kind of extended skid that put them in this position in the first place.

Lastly, the schedule has a chance to cause a major setback. Toronto has eight more games in this stretch before they get a day off and those eight games are against the Yankees at home (two games), then three on the road against the Rays, followed by three more at Yankee Stadium against the Bronx Bombers.

For three weeks, the Blue Jays have done enough to turn a fading season into something worth watching again. Now comes the part where they find out whether this surge is sustainable. If they survive this stretch against the Yankees and Rays, Toronto will be difficult to dismiss. If they don’t, this run may be remembered as one last push from a team that simply ran out of time.

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